FXUS61 KBOX 101134
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
734 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR MA AND NORTHERN
CT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 8PM FRIDAY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE IN NATURE THURSDAY
EVENING
 &&
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT
- HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS INTERIOR MA AND
CT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
&&
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STILL SEEMS LOW, WITH THE
CSU ML PROBABILITIES REMAINING AT A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WIND ACROSS WESTERN MA AND CT SIMILAR TRENDS ARE BEING
SEEN IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR NEURAL NETWORK, WITH HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR MA AND CT TONIGHT
GIVEN WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, EXPECTING TO SEE
DEWPOINTS AND PWATS SURGE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING PWATS 19"-20" ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
WITH POCKETS OF UP TO 22" POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CT HEADING INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS UNFORTUNATELY,
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS COULD INITIATE REMAINS ON
THE LOWER SIDE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH
REGARDLESS, ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FORM IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY IN
NATURE
KEY MESSAGE 2HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
INTERIOR MA AND CT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
POSE A RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT FROM
WEDNESDAY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A SURGE OF VERY HOT AND HUMID AIR, ESPECIALLY AS 925MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +27C THURSDAY AND UP TO +30C FRIDAY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR MA AND NORTHERN CT THESE HIGH
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100F THURSDAY
AND LIKELY ABOVE 100F FRIDAY ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY,
PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN CT AND
WESTERN MA FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 8PM FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS BOTH DAYS DEWPOINTS SURGING TO NEAR 70
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICIES IN THE LOW 90S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE COASTAL PLAIN HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST;
HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO EASTERN
MA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY, BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR INLAND
THE FRONT WILL DROP REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY, BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME
OUTDOORS WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR ACCESS TO COOLING
THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS THURSDAY MAY BE SEVERE IN
NATURE CSU ML PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 15-30 PERCENT FOR
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AND 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE TO SEE SMALL HAIL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF
1300+ J/KG THURSDAY EVENING, WITH POCKETS OF UP TO 2000 J/KG
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN CT HOWEVER, THOSE HIGHER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS THEY PUSH EAST, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SHORT-LEVEL CELLS REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY
KEY MESSAGE 3TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ANTICIPATING THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE FRONTS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY, WITH SUNDAY
ANTICIPATED THE DRIER OF THE TWO LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, BUT PLENTY OF DRY HOURS TOO SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS
INDICATED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW
&&
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH TONIGHTHIGH CONFIDENCE TO START, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SOME MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS MAY OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT COVERAGE IS
STILL RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN, WITH WESTERN TERMINALS MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAY MAKE A RETURN BY THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS SW WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE S IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING WARM
FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
THURSDAYMODERATE CONFIDENCE
GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT FROM SHOWERS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW (NOT UNTIL 12Z OR LATER) SOME
AREAS COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF LIFR CONDITIONS AS ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT
KBOS TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING SEABREEZE POSSIBLE TODAY BETWEEN 14-20Z BEFORE WINDS
FLIP BACK TO SW PROB30 FOR SHRA SWITCHED TO A TEMPO
KBDL TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING TIMING FOR SHRA AND LATER TSRA STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
INCLUDED AS TEMPOS FOR NOW
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR
SUNDAY: VFR BREEZY
&&
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGHIGH CONFIDENCE
WINDS SHIFT MORE SW THEN SSW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MAY START TO CREEP TO 5 FT HEADING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT
&&
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CTHEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ002>004
MAHEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ002-
003-008>011
RINONE
MARINENONE
&&
DISCUSSIONMCMINN
AVIATIONHRENCECIN/MCMINN
MARINEMCMINN
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