FXUS61 KBOX 252335
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
735 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE COD FROM 8
THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY
 &&
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIR WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
CAPE COD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
- TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER END OF SEASONABLE AS PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MON-WED (POSSIBLY
INTO THURS) MONITORING FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING
&&
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1FAIR WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL OFFSHORE BRINGS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY AIR
ABOVE IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS LAYER WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE A WORST CASE WOULD BE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOR THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS IN
SOME AREAS, IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH A NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS TEMPERATURES LIKELY RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPE AS
EASTERLY WINDS AND PROLONGED SWELLS LEADS TO A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS WHILE THE HIGHEST RISK EXISTS ALONG THE
CAPE, AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS SPANS THE SOUTH AND
EAST COASTLINE WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE EAST-FACING
BEACHES ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF MA
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY WITH
925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +20-23C TRANSLATING TO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD, AND
WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD INTRODUCE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON GUIDANCE SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FORCING AND
INSTABILITY BUILD
KEY MESSAGE 2TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER END OF SEASONABLE AS
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MON-WED
(POSSIBLY INTO THURS) MONITORING FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND WEDNESDAY THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
AND A MID- LEVEL TROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR PWATS 120-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY, WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON THE
EXTREME HIGH END OF THAT RANGE SOME GUIDANCE IS ALSO HONING IN
ON SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO SLOW ON APPROACH TO NEW ENGLAND
AS WELL AS SLOWER MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS, WHICH WOULD CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR TRAINING STORMS COMBINED WITH THE ENHANCED
FORCING OF THE LOW, THE HIGHER PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING,
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING ARE
BECOMING SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR UNFORTUNATELY, THERE STILL
REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW COULD TRACK, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
THE LOW MOVING FURTHER SOUTH NEAR NYC AND SOME FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH NORTHERN MA DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS,
IT'S POSSIBLE THE THREAT ENDS UP WEST/SOUTH OF THE REGION OR
CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
LOWER END OF SEASONABLE, EVEN DIPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AT TIMES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND +12C TO +14C
THROUGH MID-WEEK
&&
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
00Z TAF UPDATE
TONIGHTMODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR FOR MOST VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE AND ISLAND TERMINALS BEST CHANCE WOULD
BE ACK AFTER 05Z OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SUNDAYHIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL (MODERATE FOR CIGS IN FAR
EAST)
VFR FOR MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN
EASTERN MA AND HOW FAR WEST THEY EXTEND WILL BE THE MAIN
CHALLENGE GREATEST RISK FOR CAPE AND NANTUCKET WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE E WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR 5-10 KTS NE WINDS
FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS 8-12 KTS
KBOS TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
KBDL TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY: VFR
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BREEZY CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE BREEZY
SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE BREEZY SHRA
LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR BREEZY CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
&&
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH TUESDAYHIGH CONFIDENCE
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS FOR SUNDAY; HOWEVER, BELOW SCA NE WINDS 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT WITH 5 FT FOR THE OUTERMOST
SOUTHERN WATERS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR THE EAST-FACING BEACHES/COASTLINE
OUTLOOK /MONDAY
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
&&
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CTNONE
MAHIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MAZ022
RINONE
MARINENONE
&&
DISCUSSIONMCMINN/FT
AVIATIONMCMINN
MARINEMCMINN/FT
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