FXUS61 KCAR 121743
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
143 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING, FOR THE
WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME FROM 25 TO 60 NM
OR THE HAGUE LINE, 8PM THIS EVENING TILL 5AM TUESDAY
- INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE
NORTH WOODS AND MOOSEHEAD REGION TOMORROW MORNING
 &&
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER MOOSEHEAD
AND NORTH WOODS AREAS EARLY TUESDAY THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AREAS
&&
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
MOOSEHEAD AND NORTH WOODS AREAS EARLY TUESDAY THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
HOWEVER, DEPENDENT ON THE ONSET TIME, JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO
ALSO SUPPORT AN INTERVAL OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING LITTLE, OR NO, SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF MOOSEHEAD AND
NORTH WOODS TO THE EAST DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS GOING
TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH A TON OF VIRGA OCCURRING
THE LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY, THEN CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY RAIN
TOTALS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL MAX OUT GENERALLY 075-125
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH ONLY 04-06 INCH ACROSS THE ST
JOHN VALLEY
KEY MESSAGE 2WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN
AREAS
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY THIS IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT DOES APPEAR VERY LIKELY MOST PLACES WILL GET
AT LEAST 05 INCH OF PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME PLACES EXCEEDING
05 INCH GUSTY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE BOTH
POSSIBILITIES DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, WITH CHANCES
OF BOTH INCREASING THIS FORECAST CYCLE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER GUSTS
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTH WOODS, MOOSEHEAD AND WESTERN ST JOHN VALLEY AREAS
ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ROUTE 11 ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE STRONGLY SIGNALING THE CHANCES OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE TIMING WILL BE IMPORTANT AS NIGHTTIME HAS THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIP
&&
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
REST OF TODAYMAINLY MVFR IN RAIN N WINDS 5-15 KTS
TONIGHTMVFR CIGS/VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE
RAIN EXITS THE REGION LIGHT NE WINDS
TUESDAYVFR/MVFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR
RAIN DEVELOPING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NORTHERN ARES DURING THE MORNING EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHTMVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR RAIN RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR KBHB AND KBGR,
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL START EAST,
TURNING COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO BE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAYMVFR/VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHERN TERMINALS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAYVFR NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHTVFR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FRIDAY - SATURDAYMVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE,
BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED/DIRECTION
&&
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS A FRONT
CROSSES EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THIS EVENING TILL 8PM
WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 25NM E WINDS 15-25KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KT AND SEAS 6-9FT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 8PM THIS EVENING TILL 2PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS E WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AND SEAS
3-6FT EXPECTED NEW WITH THIS UPDATE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8PM THIS EVENING TILL 5AM TUESDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM
EASTPORT TO SCHOODIC POINT FROM 25 TO 60 NM OR THE HAGUE LINE
NE WINDS 15-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT AND SEAS 6-8FT EXPECTED
WINDS WILL FALL BELOW GALES IN THE AM TUESDAY BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 35KT RETURNS TUE EVE ESPECIALLY IN THE WATERS CLOSER
TO THE HAGUE LINE
WED NIGHT THE WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA (<25KT OR
5FT) FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS HOWEVER, AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BACK TO SCA LEVELS FOR THURS INTO
EARLY THURS EVE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM EXPECTING BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS AGAIN THEN RAPIDLY BACK TO SCA AND POSSIBLE GALE
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT LOW POSSIBILITY OF STORM
CONDITIONS ON THE 25-60NM WATERS ON SAT
IN TERMS OF WEATHER/VSBY EXPECTING RAIN AND FOG TO LOWER VSBY
TUE INTO WED THEN AGAIN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
&&
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MENONE
MARINESMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ080-081
&&
DISCUSSIONJS
AVIATIONARL
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