FXUS61 KCAR 262330
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
730 PM UPDATEUPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
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KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
2) THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
&&
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO REACH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE REMNANTS OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
KEY MESSAGE 2THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE ADDED
SUPPORT OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AROUND THAT TIME CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY MORNING AND
REACH CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS CENTRAL MAINE, EASTERN AROOSTOOK, AND FAR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH INSTABILITY OF UP
TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS DRIVEN BY
ELONGATED, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WHICH IS TYPICALLY A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
OUR SEVERE THREAT WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE ARE STILL
SOME OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS THAT COULD MODIFY THE THREAT FIRST,
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS
THE NIGHT BEFORE? THIS COULD CHANGE OUR LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY PROFILE SECOND, WHERE EXACTLY WILL THE COLD
FRONT BE DURING THE AFTERNOON? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORMS
SET UP THIRD, HOW FAR INLAND WILL THE MARINE LAYER PENETRATE?
THE FURTHER NORTH THE MARINE LAYER PENETRATES, THE LOWER THE
STORM RISK ALONG THE COAST
&&
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHTVFR, THOUGH MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG LATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THURSDAYVFR SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHTISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OTHERWISE, VFR EARLY LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
FRIDAYMVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S WINDS 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHTIMPROVING TO VFR EARLY NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS
SATURDAYVFR W/NW WINDS 5-10KT
SATURDAY NIGHTVFR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SUNDAYVFR, POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHTMVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MONDAYVFR/MVFR VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
&&
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY SEAS 2 TO 4 FT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT PATCHY FOG RETURNS BRIEFLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY
&&
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MENONE
MARINENONE
&&
DISCUSSIONSM/CN
AVIATION21/SM/CN
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