FXUS61 KCAR 061041
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT 12Z TAFS
-ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE FROM 6 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MID-WEEK STORM, WITH AT LEAST A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN PRECIP TYPES
 &&
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD RESULT
IN SOME MINOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON UNTREATED SURFACES
2) TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND
RIVER/LAKE ICE ROT
3) ANOTHER STORM MAY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX
&&
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD RESULT
IN SOME MINOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON UNTREATED SURFACES
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ONSET, SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT
COULD BEGIN A BIT EARLIER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE, EXCEPT THE COAST BY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL RAIN
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE UP TO ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH AND AROUND A TRACE ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS LITTLE IF ANY SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SOME MINOR
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
KEY MESSAGE 2
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, LIKELY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE ICE
ROT
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION
A MILD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH A SPLIT STREAM
FLOW AS THE POLAR JET REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SITS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
WILL KEEP DISTURBANCES AWAY FOR THE MOST PART, AND ALLOW FOR THE
MILD AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO SIT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
THIS RISE IN TEMPERATURE COULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES LIFTING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA, AND LOWS EACH NIGHT
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE EXISTING SNOW
PACK, WITH AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF SWE LOSS
CURRENTLY, SWES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SIT AROUND 1 TO 4
INCHES SOME AREAS COULD SEE A COMPLETE LOSS OF SNOW PACK WITH
THIS PATTERN, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE DOWNEAST COAST AND
AROUND THE BANGOR AREA BUT EVEN AREAS WITH A GREATER SNOW PACK
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN SNOW DEPTH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO RIVER AND LAKE ICE BEGINNING TO ROT AS WELL
KEY MESSAGE 3
ANOTHER STORM MAY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION
THE POLAR JET WILL DIP SOUTHWARDS ON WEDNESDAY AND HELP USHER IN
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, CARRYING THE LOW UP INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SW CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL ARRIVE AS AN OPEN WAVE, BUT THE
EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN, LEADING TO CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THE STORM TRACK WILL
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK IF THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS FURTHER NORTH AND THE
CENTER OF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER, THE CWA COULD
ENTIRELY ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW, WITH MORE RAIN IN THE
FORECAST BUT IF THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, THE LOW COULD
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION, WITH A COLDER OUTCOME ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST SHOULD THE WARM
FRONT LIFT THROUGH THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH IS IN JUST
THE RIGHT PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA, THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ONCE MORE WITH THIS SETUP THAT SAID,
AT THIS TIME RANGE, THIS THREAT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, AND FOR
NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS
&&
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR/MFVR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING EXPECT A WINTRY
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS,
MAINLY 09Z TO 12Z SATURDAY MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN RAIN, PATCHY FOG, AND LOW CEILINGS E TO NE WIND 5
TO 10 KT TODAY, THEN LIGHT SE TONIGHT S WIND 5 TO 10 KT
SATURDAY
SAT NIGHT - SUNGRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SW WINDS SHIFT W
5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS, TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY
SUN NIGHT - MONVFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SW WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
MON NIGHT - TUEVFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SKC SPREADING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION SW WINDS SHIFT W 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS
&&
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTERWATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE TOWARD
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST GALES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WINDS COULD
INCREASE ONCE MORE ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS RETURNING TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR NO THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY DURING THIS
TIME
&&
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MEWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032
MARINESMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051
&&
DISCUSSIONAES/TWD
AVIATIONAES/TWD
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