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FXUS61 KGYX 030515 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025

SYNOPSIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THIS MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY ONE, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING BACK NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE AT RAINFALL

&&

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/ RIDGING IN THE COLUMN WILL BE THE THEME TODAY WHICH WILL YIELD FAIR WEATHER AND THE START OF A WARMING TREND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR ABOVE NORMAL CLIMB TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS

&&

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ NOT AS CHILLY TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERNMOST MAINE ON SATURDAY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE THEREBY COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES HOWEVER, IT'S PROGRESS WILL BE MINIMAL COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE FOUND IN THE MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RISE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH NO PRECIPITATION

&&

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ KEY MESSAGE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU THAT PERIOD

IMPACTS: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED BEYOND MAINTAINING/DEEPENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS TEMPS TURN WARMER AND FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ALSO INCREASE

FORECAST DETAILS: BY SUNSURFACE RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK NORTH AGAIN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST NAEFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A ROUGHLY ONCE A DECADE KIND OF WARM AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE REGION THRU TUE THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE MON AND TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT

THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED INTO THU HOWEVER GIVEN HOW WARM THE AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONTTHE COOLER AIR MASS REPLACING IT WILL JUST BRING US BACK TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IT IS ALSO OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND PERHAPS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THE FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY THOUGH MEANS THAT QPF MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE HIGH POTENTIAL THAN A TYPICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERALL RAINFALL DEFICITS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE PERIOD AND DROUGHT WILL REMAIN STEADY OR EXPAND AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NBM GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED

&&

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ SHORT TERMVFR CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BML AND LEB AT NIGHT, BUT IT'S BEEN SO DRY LATELY THAT FOG WILL BE HARD TO COME BY ELSEWHERE

LONG TERMVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME UNDER BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAINTAIN SOME THREAT OF VALLEY FOG THRU THE PERIODMOST LIKELY ONLY AFFECTING LEB AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HIE

&&

MARINE SHORT TERMCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GOOD VISIBILITY

LONG TERMWINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING LOCAL WEATHER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THEN WHICH MAY BRING GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS

&&

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MENONE NHNONE MARINENONE

&&

NEAR TERMEKSTER SHORT TERMEKSTER LONG TERMLEGRO AVIATIONEKSTER/LEGRO MARINEEKSTER/LEGRO

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