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FXUS61 KBOX 202100 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

SYNOPSIS... DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET REMAINING UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AS EVIDENCED IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS HAVE PREVENTED DEWPOINTS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S THERE. 19Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR DRYING OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THIS MORNINGS LOWS. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE. SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL/. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GRIDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY FORECAST. MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE. MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON NIGHT. GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT. NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT. TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO FRI. BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY PRECIP.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS AFTERNOON... AT 1230 PM COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT JUST WEST OF BOS-PVD LINE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR. HOWEVER FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD WITH VFR /CIGS 035-050/ BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21Z-22Z. TONIGHT... VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z-12Z SLIPPING OVER THE BERKSHIRES INTO MHT AND NEARBY TERMINALS. SAT AND SAT NIGHT... VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUN...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN. VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WED...VFR.

MARINE... TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE. SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED HIGH SO AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WON/T DROP A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT YET. SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA. MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE. LOWERED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

EQUIPMENT... THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE.
MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 250-254>256.

&& SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM... RLG LONG TERM... KJC AVIATION... KJC/NOCERA
MARINE... KJC/RLG EQUIPMENT...

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