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FXUS61 KBOX 021228 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
828 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

SYNOPSIS... ONE MORE HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. ALL EYES WILL THEN BE ON HURRICANE EARL AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARL MAY BRING AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE STORM PASSES WITHIN 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. EARL WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EXPECT HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS DURING TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +19C TO +20C. THIS ALONG WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS POINT TO HIGH AGAIN REACHING TO LOWER-MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES HAS SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF MAJOR HURRICANE EARL TO THE MID ATLC COAST...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM. FOR TODAYS SURF ZONES...SWELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...WITH 7 FOOT SEAS EVERY 15 SECONDS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASING SWELLS ALONG WITH STRONG...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...EARL WILL START ITS NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN TOWARD THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL PUSH N. WITH ENOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EARL WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE S COAST AFTER 06Z. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WINDS START TO BACK TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE...A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE COAST TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH THE HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED EARLIER ALONG THE COAST OF THESE COUNTIES. DETAILS ABOUT THIS NEW WATCH WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT. THIS WATCH AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST CAN BE FOUND IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT. THE BIG CHANGE THIS MORNING IS THAT THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER N AND W ALONG THE SE MA COAST...FROM WESTPORT AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO PLYMOUTH. THIS COULD STILL BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF THE HURRICANE TRACKS EVEN CLOSER. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS RAINFALL MOVES N WITH THE HURRICANE. THE 09Z FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO BRING EARL TOWARD NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS 20 TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE HURRICANE SO STRONG THIS MORNING SE OF THE OUTER BANKS...IT WILL NOT WEAKEN QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS EARL MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF S COASTAL MA...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS A BIT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THAT EARL COULD MAKE AN EVEN MORE DIRECT HIT ON THE OUTER CAPE OR NANTUCKET. THERE COULD ALSO BE HIGHER WINDS FURTHER INTO EASTERN MA/RI AND POSSIBLY NE CT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET...BUT THIS IS BEING CONSIDERED LATER TODAY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS TURN TOWARD THE REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LOW LEVEL JET THAT DEVELOPS NW OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES BY NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MIGHT MIX DOWN AND CAUSE SOME DAMAGE INLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE RAINFALL FROM EARL. TYPICALLY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH EARL AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS RI/E MA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDS THAT MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT HEADS NE SATURDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH E WITH THE STORM. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S OF THE REGION WHILE EARL TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND ANCHORS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. S-SW WIND SHOULD PREVAIL. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLD SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER 06Z. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WINDSWEPT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/E MA WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES AWAY. VFR BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MARINE... TODAY AND TONIGHT...S SWELLS ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. USED A BLEND OF THE WNA AND HURRICANE WNA FOR INCREASING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFTS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...DEPENDING UPON IF OR WHEN THE WATCHES ARE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS. S-SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE 09Z DATA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HAVE MENTIONED A BIT HIGHER WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ON THE OPEN WATERS E AND S OF NANTUCKET AS EARL PASSES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN ADVANCE OF EARL. EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS ABOUT 30 MILES SE OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AS CLOSE AS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHILE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WATERS. CURRENTLY HAVE SEAS FORECASTED TO BE 20 TO 30 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS NEAR NANTUCKET. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SATURDAY...WINDS DIMINISH...BUT SMALL CRAFT FOR HIGH SEAS LIKELY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS...BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE.

CLIMATE... THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...THURSDAY SEP 2ND - BOS...100...1953 PVD...99....1953 BDL...101...1953 ORH...99....1953 CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER 2010 INCLUDES JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST BOSTON...3RD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 73.6F HARTFORD...3RD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 73.7F PROVIDENCE...WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 74.0F WORCESTER...7TH WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 70.5F 2010 DAILY 90+ MAXIMUMS THROUGH 9/1/2010 BOSTON...24 DAYS RECORD NUMBER IS 29 DAYS SET IN 1983...FOLLOWED BY 28 DAYS IN 1955 AND 27 DAYS IN 2002 AND 1991...25 DAYS IN 1988 HARTFORD/BDL...32 DAYS RECORD NUMBER IS 38 DAYS SET IN 1983...FOLLOWED BY 35 DAYS IN 2002...34 DAYS IN 1965...32 DAYS IN 1966 PROVIDENCE...17 DAYS RECORD NUMBER IS 30 DAYS SET IN 1983 WORCESTER NEAR 1000 FT ELEVATION...5 DAYS RECORD NUMBER IS 18 DAYS IN 1988 AND 1949

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAZ007-015-016. HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAZ019>024. TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ017-018. NH...NONE. RI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE... TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ230-235>237-250-251-256. HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANZ231>234-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&& SYNOPSIS...EVT NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM... EVT LONG TERM... EVT AVIATION... EVT
MARINE... EVT CLIMATE... NOCERA/STRAUSS

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