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FXUS61 KBOX 170552 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1252 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025

SYNOPSIS  A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS MONDAY WINDS DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL MONITORING A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/ KEY POINT

* FREEZING RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 45-55MPH

EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR ANOTHER 3 HOURS REPORTS FROM UPSTREAM INDICATED A FINAL BURST OF SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT LATE THIS EVENING, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEING TO INCREASE

BROUGHT THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT THIS EVENING A STRONG PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET ACCOMPANIED BY THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BURST OF WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 45-55MPH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CRASH BEHIND, GOING FROM THE MID-30S TO UPPER-40S, DOWN TO THE MID- TEENS TO MID-20S THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR, HELPING DRY OUT SOME OF THE WATER FROM TODAYS RAINS, BUT ANY STANDING PUDDLES WILL LIKELY FREEZE BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD STANDING WATER

&&


SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/ KEY POINTS

* HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OF 55-65MPH

* VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES AT OR BELOW 0F MONDAY NIGHT

VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS CAA AND A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND A ROBUST 850MB JET AROUND 50-60 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY, BECOMING STRONG OVER NE MA MONDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE LLJ COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 70 KNOTS 925MB WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS ROBUST, STAYING AROUND 35-45 KNOTS THE AMOUNT OF SUN WE RECEIVE TOMORROW WILL LIKELY DETERMINE IF THE MIXING POTENTIAL CAN REACH THOSE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AT 850MB HREF CLOUD COVER SHOWS THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH SUN WILL BREAK THROUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER MIXED LAYER UP TO 850MB ACROSS MUCH OF MA, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER 850MB WINDS, LED TO THE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE NE COASTLINE EXPECTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65MPH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA FURTHER SOUTH IN CT, RI, AND SE MA, BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING STRUGGLING TO REACH THAT 850 MB LEVEL, THUS DID NOT UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS SURFACE WINDS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL STILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST AT 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55MPH WITH THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY, THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION

THE 850MB JET REMAINS STRONG OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY, BUT THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY, STILL AROUND 35-45MPH WITHOUT DIURNAL HEATING TO PROMOTE MIXING THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT, WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN TO NEAR -10F AND COASTAL AREAS NEAR 0F

&&


LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ KEY MESSAGES:

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS WEEK

* WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F MONDAY NIGHT

* MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY

DETAILS:

RATHER QUIET PERIOD TO BEGIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THIS WILL MEAN DRIER CONDITIONS, IT WILL ALSO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE MOST LIKELY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH HOW CLOSE THIS STORM GETS TO OUR REGION WILL BE A CRITICAL DETAIL IN DETERMINING IMPACTS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK, BUT THE WINDOW STARTED TO NARROW WITHIN THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE LOOKING AT SOME TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AS WE SHOULD BE BY THEN, NOT CONCERNED ABOUT MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS IS LOOKING LIKE ALL SNOW NOW THE FOCUS IS ON FIGURING OUT HOW MUCH SNOW WE SEE AND WHERE

ONCE THIS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY, WE STAY WITHIN MORE OF A CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW FRIDAY THE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL USA BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

&&


AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

06Z TAF UPDATEHIGH CONFIDENCE

EARLY THIS MORNING:

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KTS SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS 2500-3500 FT (HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR)

TODAY:

VFR AND VERY WINDY WINDS GUSTING 40-50 KNOTS, POSSIBLY UP TO 60 KNOTS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS SPILL OFF THE TERRAIN ACROSS WESTERN MA EXTENDING EASTWARD AT 4000-6000 FT

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY:

VFR WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST AT 35-45 KNOTS WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WEST GUSTS 30-40 KTS

KBOS TAFHIGH CONFIDENCE

KBDL TAFHIGH CONFIDENCE

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT

WEDNESDAY: VFR BREEZY

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR SLIGHT CHANCE SN

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE BREEZY CHANCE SN

THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR BREEZY CHANCE SN

FRIDAY: VFR BREEZY

&&


MARINE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

MODERATE CONFIDENCE

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS BEGIN THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55-60 KNOTS THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE VERY ROUGH SEAS, RISING TO 10-15 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS, AND 4-8 FEET IN CAPE COD BAY, MVY SOUNDS, AND NANTUCKET SOUND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WELL OUT INTO THE OPEN WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE AT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, OR REVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT FREEZING SPRAY

WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LOCAL ROUGH SEAS FREEZING SPRAY

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT CHANCE OF SNOW

THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT SNOW LIKELY VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS

FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CTWIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004 MAWIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024 HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>004- 008>012-026 HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007- 013>016 RIWIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008 MARINESTORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-250-251- 254>256 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256 GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>237

&&


SYNOPSISBELK/KP NEAR TERMBELK/KP SHORT TERMKP LONG TERMBELK AVIATIONBW/MENSCH MARINEBELK/KP
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