FXUS61 KBOX 021515
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1115 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY FOR MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE WINDS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT TEMPS ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
60S
&&
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1110 AM UPDATE:
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF COLD-ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS PRIMARILY ACROSS MA
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF RI, WITH SOME OCEAN-ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS RAP/HRRR BUFKIT RH X-SECTIONS SHOW
THIS LAYER PRETTY WELL AND IT IS ALSO PRETTY SHALLOW THESE
MODELS SHOW DECREASING RH INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON; SO I
DID BOOST SKY COVER A BIT TOWARD MORE OF A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY LOOK THRU MIDAFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF CT AND RI DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THEREAFTER
OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S STILL LOOK ON TRACK
WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING OFFSET BY THE COLD ADVECTION (WHICH
STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE LATER IN THE EVENING)
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT; THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THE RESULT IS A MUCH COOLER DAY
UNDER NW FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS LESS
THAN A HALF INCH) THE COOLER NW FLOW PROMOTES GOOD MIXING UP TO AT
LEAST 850 MB WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND -2C THIS WILL MEAN A MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE DAY TODAY, 20+ DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY HIGHS WILL
REACH ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS
&&
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS
PREVIOUS, IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THANKS NOT ONLY TO THE COLDER
AIRMASS BUT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH PWATS NEAR 025; PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
&&
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND MUCH OF THE SAME
AIRMASS IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WONT REBOUND MUCH AND WILL STAY
IN THE 50S SKIES ALSO TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW
SW FLOWS ALOFT, AND WAA BEGINS TO KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT THIS COULD
BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT IS ONCE AGAIN LACKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SURFACE FLOW TURNS SE, AND WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN AS A 35-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD GUSTS OF 20-30MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAK ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S AND POSSIBLY
FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID-50S AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THEY LACK MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE, AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SNE TO SEE ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
THURSDAY AND BEYOND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY, HELPING
MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN PAST THURSDAY
AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE STARTS TO SEPARATE THE GFS AND EURO AT THIS
POINT INDICATE A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN MEANWHILE, THE GFS BRINGS US
INTO A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN TAKING A LOOK AT CLUSTER
ANALYSIS FROM THE GEFS, ENS, AND GEPS, THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (81%) FAVOR A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST A SMALLER SUBSET OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (19%) FAVOR TROUGHING TO OUR WEST, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
&&
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
15Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE
WINDS THRU 18-20Z NEAR COASTAL EASTERN MA
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR, LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN 5-10KT
SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR LIGHT N WINDS 5-10 KTS
KBOS TAFHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF SCT-BKN VFR DECKS WITH NNE
WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS (THRU ~18-19Z) AROUND 10 KT, THEN
RETURN TO NW
KBDL TAFHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BREEZY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR BREEZY
&&
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TODAY: N WINDS 10-15 KTS SEAS 2-4 FT
TONIGHT: N/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT WITH SEAS 1-3FT
SUNDAY: N WINDS 10-15 KTS SEAS 1-3 FT
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS
&&
FIRE WEATHER
THE UNUSUALLY PROLONGED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK UPON COORDINATION
WITH THE STATES OF CT, RI, AND MA, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OR SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
&&
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CTNONE
MANONE
RINONE
MARINENONE
&&
SYNOPSISBW/KP
NEAR TERMLOCONTO/BW
SHORT TERMBW
LONG TERMKP
AVIATIONLOCONTO/BW/KP
MARINELOCONTO/BW/KP
FIRE WEATHERBW/KP
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