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FXUS61 KBOX 281110 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

SYNOPSIS...  MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY, LIKELY BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NE WINDS, BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FURTHER TO THE NORTH. A COUPLE OF SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND A RISK OF MORE RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...  

7 AM UPDATE... PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE PROMPTED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. SHOULD SEE FOG BURN OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOLDOUTS NOT GETTING INTO THE CLEAR UNTIL 10 AM. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED IN PRIOR DISCUSSION, MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WHERE THERE ARE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS, BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY TODAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AND SOMEWHAT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE.

PRIOR DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH WEAK COLD FRONT LIKELY WASHING OUT ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND BECOMING OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING SEABREEZES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. MODELS GENERATING SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE PIKE TODAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER. LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS RI AND SE MA IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH SEABREEZES. BUT NO THUNDER GIVEN VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 750 MB WITH GOOD MID LEVEL CAP.

850 MB TEMPS 13-14C SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BUT COOLER IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SEABREEZES DEVELOP. A BIT HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS LOW TO MID 60S.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...     TONIGHT... LOW RISK FOR AN EVENING SHOWER, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, COASTAL LOW WILL EMERGE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. AS A RESULT, SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY... MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A SOUTHWARD TREND WITH COASTAL STORM. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LATE JULY PATTERN AS STRONG VORTEX ACROSS SE CANADA MAINTAINS ENOUGH CONFLUENCE TO SUPPRESS COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH, ALTHOUGH CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY THE ISLANDS COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL ON SAT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY AS THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE SO A SUBTLE SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL BACK IN PLAY FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE SNE. FOR NOW, WE FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS OF CONFINING HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER NORTH OF HFD-PVD-TAN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ANOMALOUS NE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY NE WINDS TO THE COAST WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH GUSTS OVER THE ISLANDS. COOLEST TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SE NEW ENG WITH 70S FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ACROSS SE NEW ENG ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM.

&&


LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...     HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERSISTENT NE FLOW COASTAL AREAS WITH POSSIBLE ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK * RISK OF ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN SOUTH COASTAL AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY

OVERVIEW...

RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN USA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO LIE IN AN AREA OF MID TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS BETWEEN AND SOMEWHAT SUSCEPTIBLE THE MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS. ONE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES RESULTS IN A COUPLE OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVES, WHICH IN TURN INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR FORECAST. THERE IS CONFIDENCE OF A PERSISTENT NE SURFACE GRADIENT BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS SOME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINLY. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SIGNS ON OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY.

PERIODS OF FOCUS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF FAIRLY ROUGH SURF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES. AS THE MID ATLANTIC UPPER LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY ALSO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND 00Z ECMWF TREND, HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK, ESPECIALLY AS THE PERIODS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF THUNDER 18Z THU TO 05Z FRI FOR MUCH OF AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG SO PRIMARY HAZARD MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&


.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED MORNING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT IN THE EVENING MAY TREND TOWARD MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS RAIN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE NEW ENG.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH MAINLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER TO NORTH, ESPECIALLY MASS PIKE NORTHWARD. INCREASING NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIG POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MONDAY...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH COAST INCLUDING ISLANDS AND VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&



MARINE...  
   FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TRANQUIL SEAS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME NE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH CONTINUES. POTENTIAL FOR NE GUSTS TO 35 KT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND SE WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE STORM. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 10+ FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL WATERS INTO MONDAY, BUT SEAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HAVE GONE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE WAVE WATCH GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE.
MARINE...  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.

&&
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON NEAR TERM...KJC/THOMPSON SHORT TERM...  KJC LONG TERM...  THOMPSON AVIATION...  KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...  THOMPSON
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