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FXUS61 KBOX 021515 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1115 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024

SYNOPSIS  HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY FOR MONDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT TEMPS ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE 60S

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/ 1110 AM UPDATE:

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF COLD-ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS PRIMARILY ACROSS MA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF RI, WITH SOME OCEAN-ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS RAP/HRRR BUFKIT RH X-SECTIONS SHOW THIS LAYER PRETTY WELL AND IT IS ALSO PRETTY SHALLOW THESE MODELS SHOW DECREASING RH INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON; SO I DID BOOST SKY COVER A BIT TOWARD MORE OF A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LOOK THRU MIDAFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CT AND RI DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THEREAFTER OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING OFFSET BY THE COLD ADVECTION (WHICH STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE LATER IN THE EVENING)

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT; THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THE RESULT IS A MUCH COOLER DAY UNDER NW FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS LESS THAN A HALF INCH) THE COOLER NW FLOW PROMOTES GOOD MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 850 MB WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND -2C THIS WILL MEAN A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE DAY TODAY, 20+ DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY HIGHS WILL REACH ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/ TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS PREVIOUS, IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THANKS NOT ONLY TO THE COLDER AIRMASS BUT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH PWATS NEAR 025; PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S

&&


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/ MONDAY:

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND MUCH OF THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WONT REBOUND MUCH AND WILL STAY IN THE 50S SKIES ALSO TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SW FLOWS ALOFT, AND WAA BEGINS TO KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT THIS COULD BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT UPPER- LEVEL SUPPORT IS ONCE AGAIN LACKING

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY SURFACE FLOW TURNS SE, AND WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AS A 35-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD GUSTS OF 20-30MPH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S AND POSSIBLY FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID-50S AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THEY LACK MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNE TO SEE ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY, HELPING MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN PAST THURSDAY AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE STARTS TO SEPARATE THE GFS AND EURO AT THIS POINT INDICATE A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN MEANWHILE, THE GFS BRINGS US INTO A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN TAKING A LOOK AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS FROM THE GEFS, ENS, AND GEPS, THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (81%) FAVOR A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST A SMALLER SUBSET OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (19%) FAVOR TROUGHING TO OUR WEST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN

&&


AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

15Z TAF UPDATE:

TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS THRU 18-20Z NEAR COASTAL EASTERN MA

TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR, LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN 5-10KT

SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR LIGHT N WINDS 5-10 KTS

KBOS TAFHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF SCT-BKN VFR DECKS WITH NNE WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS (THRU ~18-19Z) AROUND 10 KT, THEN RETURN TO NW

KBDL TAFHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR

MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BREEZY

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR BREEZY

&&


MARINE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT TODAY: N WINDS 10-15 KTS SEAS 2-4 FT

TONIGHT: N/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT WITH SEAS 1-3FT

SUNDAY: N WINDS 10-15 KTS SEAS 1-3 FT

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT

TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT

WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS

&&


FIRE WEATHER THE UNUSUALLY PROLONGED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK UPON COORDINATION WITH THE STATES OF CT, RI, AND MA, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CTNONE MANONE RINONE MARINENONE

&&


SYNOPSISBW/KP NEAR TERMLOCONTO/BW SHORT TERMBW LONG TERMKP AVIATIONLOCONTO/BW/KP MARINELOCONTO/BW/KP FIRE WEATHERBW/KP
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