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FXUS61 KBOX 241423 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023

SYNOPSIS  DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA A FRONTAL SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE WINTRY MIX AND RAIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOW CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/ 1025 AM UPDATE

NO CHANGES IN THE LATEST UPDATE HAVE JUST BROUGHT THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND SE CANADA TODAY WITH A MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A DRY AIRMASS AS PWATS GENERALLY LESS THAN 025" WHILE THE COLUMN IS DRY, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER JET WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENG THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN WHICH WILL LEAD TO FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0-3C SUPPORTING HIGHS MID/UPPER 40S HIGH TERRAIN AND 50-55 DEGREES ELSEWHERE OVERALL, A PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY WITH A MODEST NW BREEZE

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/ TONIGHT

HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGHS CLOUDS THIN OUT, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE TO TREND THE FORECAST MINS A BIT COLDER THAN NBM, WITH LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N/NE

SATURDAY

ROBUST MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE GT LAKES WITH A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LEVEL FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIP TO SNE ONSET TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ANTECEDENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, WHILE SW MID LEVEL JET BRINGS A WARM NOSE IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE INTERIOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS NORTHERN MA BUT WARMING ALOFT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SLEET WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUM, MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF A PERIOD OF SLEET IN THE INTERIOR AS DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO LOCK IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH COAST, MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE COLD HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS

&&


LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/ HIGHLIGHTS

* WINTRY MIX AND COLD RAIN TAPERING OFF LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE ARE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST

* DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUN/MON WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUN CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON SAT

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER SOMETIME IN THE TUE TO THU TIMEFRAME

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY

A CUTOFF LOW/TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO SAT EVENING THE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC BY EARLY SUN A DEEP LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO SAT EVENING, WHILE A SECONDARY LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THE SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND LIFTS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY SUN

WILL STILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE EVENING EXPECT THAT THE MIX WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE 925 HPA TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE 0 DEGREES CELSIUS BY ROUGHLY 03-06Z AS A RESULT AM EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIP COMPLETELY TAPERS OFF EARLY ON SUNDAY AS THE SECONDARY LOW LIFTS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE

DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT PRECIP MAY END A BIT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE 700 HPA LOW WILL SEE A DRY SLOT PUNCH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP QUICKER THAN WE'VE CURRENTLY GOT ADVERTISED WILL NOTE THAT DID ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN WILL SEE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO ROUGHLY 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS SHOULD SEE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE, SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO SUN

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON SUN BEFORE FLATTENING OUT ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD COULD BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES ON SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT DUE TO THE EXITING SYSTEM AND HIGH NUDGING IN WILL SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF ROUGHLY 20-40 KTS WITH W TO WNW FLOW ALOFT ON SUN SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO MIX THIS DOWN PER NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE 25-40 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS LATE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE HIGH BUILDS MORE FIRMLY INTO OUR REGION

GIVEN THE STRONGER WNW/W FLOW ON SUN HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT MIXING EXPECTED OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS TOWARD THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS STILL MILD ON MON, BUT MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S

LASTLY, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS THAT SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATE ON MON LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOME CONVECTION THAT FIRES NEAR THE OH VALLEY HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP DOES NOT APPEAR IT WOULD RESULT IN A WASHOUT EVEN IF IT COMES TO FRUITION

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THIS WINDOW THINKING THAT THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TO THE TN VALLEY

THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS WITHIN THE GEPS/EPS/GEFS GUIDANCE DEPICTING A COASTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION AND COULD BE AS SNOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, WHICH FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THINK THIS IS REASONABLE FOR NOW GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY

&&


AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TODAYHIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON WINDS OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10 KTS COULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL ROUGHLY 14-16Z

TONIGHTHIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING, ESPECIALLY LATE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE/E WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KTS

SATURDAYHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE PIKE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIP ONSET OTHERWISE, RAIN AND SLEET MIX INTERIOR AND ALL RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE BERKSHIRES IN THE AFTERNOON WINDS OUT OF THE E AND INCREASING 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON

KBOS TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF

KBDL TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT CHANCE RA, FZRA LIKELY

SUNDAY: VFR WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT

SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT

MONDAY: VFR BREEZY

MONDAY NIGHT: VFR BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN

TUESDAY: VFR SLIGHT CHANCE RA

&&


MARINE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAYHIGH CONFIDENCE

A PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MA WATERS WITH A SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION, OTHERWISE EXPECT NW WINDS BELOW 20 KT, SHIFTING TO NE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING INCREASING EAST WINDS SAT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS THERE IS SOME RISK FOR MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SAT/SAT EVENING RAIN DEVELOPING SAT WITH REDUCED VSBYS

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ROUGH SEAS UP TO 8 FT RAIN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

SUNDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT

MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CTNONE MANONE RINONE MARINESMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 250-251 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256

&&
SYNOPSISKJC/BL NEAR TERMKJC/GAUCHER SHORT TERMKJC LONG TERMBL AVIATIONKJC/BL MARINEKJC/BL
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