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FXUS61 KBOX 301042 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
642 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

SYNOPSIS...  WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT PLENTY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE MIXED IN TOO.

&&


NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS, AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO START. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY THE LATE MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO BE PESKY.

INITIAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST MISSING THE REGION. THE SECOND IMPULSE LATER TODAY WILL BE THE ONE TO WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SHOULD PLACE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL TREND TEMPERATURES HIGHER. HOWEVER, A HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM REACHING ITS MAXIMUM IMPACT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT TURN SOUTHERLY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALSO PREVENT MANY SHOWERS FROM MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...     TONIGHT...

MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. SO, WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY, NOT THINKING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY STRONG. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION, BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD THE FARTHER EAST THEY TRAVEL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FINALLY TAKE HOLD, RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN FORM WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION. PERSISTENT COLD POOL ALOFT TO OUR NORTHWEST WOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM WHERE STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY STILL REVOLVES ON HOW HOW MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTION SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CAN MAKE. THIS WILL DEPEND MOSTLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE MORNING. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE GREATEST RISKS WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA CLOSER TO THE MORE SUPPORTIVE SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS.

&&


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...     HIGHLIGHTS...

* NEAR SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK * SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY INTO SAT WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK

PATTERN DETAILS...

THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY AGREEABLE IN SHOWING PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE SPECIFICS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING OCCASIONAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES WHICH HAS LEAD TO A SPREAD IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. REGARDLESS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SEASONABLE TO BELOW AVERAGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM AND WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, BELIEVE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS K VALUES ARE QUIET LOW AS WELL AS PWATS.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD AS ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SWING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS TAKING HOLD WITH A CHANCE FOR ISO THUNDER EACH DAY AS WAA AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION RESULTING IN EITHER DRY BUT COOL WEATHER NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WET, SEASONABLE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH WHERE THE EC KEEPS IT OVER SNE. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND IN THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. THUS WHILE THE FORECAST LOOKS WET, THERE WILL BE DRY WEATHER MIXED IN EACH DAY.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS, BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN. GREATEST RISK FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT.

&&



MARINE...  
   FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM AREAS OF FOG TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE FOR SOME FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT LONG SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS AND FOG PATCHES ALSO MAY IMPACT MARINERS AT TIMES. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE.
MARINE...  NONE.

&&
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...  BELK LONG TERM...  DUNTEN AVIATION...  BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...  BELK/DUNTEN
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