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FXUS61 KBOX 231930 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
330 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2018

SYNOPSIS...  LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS, BEFORE IT HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS, WITH SOME WET SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR.

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...   2 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ERUPTING OVER S/SE AREAS OF CT AND RI. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS ILLUSTRATING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. UNDERGOING FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PARENT CLOSED LOW-MID LEVEL LOW, BENEATH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET, DEEP MOIST PLUME BEING CAPTURED AS ILLUSTRATED PER PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN RAP MESOANALYSIS IS EASILY LOFTED.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, CONVECTIVE INDICES EXCEEDING THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TOTAL TOTALS. COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. PLENTY OF SW UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BOTH THE 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND BULK SHEAR SW PARALLEL. ANYWHERE SURFACE SE WIND, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME 0-1 KM TURNING / HELICITY WHICH REQUIRES WATCHING. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND ASCENT OF AN UNSTABLE COLUMN PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH SAID FREEZING LAYER.

ISOLATED THUNDER PREVAILING WITH HEAVY RAIN / GUSTY WIND WORDING. MAINLY FOCUSED E OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVE IN REGIONS OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING.

OUTCOMES ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AROUND THE N MA BORDER PARENT TO THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SWEEPING VORTMAX SWEEPS THROUGH. ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITH THE FOCUS OVER NE MA.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ONGOING, SHOULD BE THROUGH BY THE END OF THE PM COMMUTE, POSSIBLY A SECOND SWEEPING BATCH OF SHOWERS INTO EVE ALONG THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OVER THE GULF OF ME.

CONTINUED CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LATEST NEAR- TERM FORECAST.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS LIFTING OUT HOWEVER LINGERING MAINLY OVER N/NE MA. THE SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THROUGH THE REGION. CONTINUED ASCENT UPON AN INFLOW MOIST-AXIS. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, MECHANISMS THAT'LL KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING BUT ADVECT IT MORE TOWARDS THE N/NE. WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NW BECOMING BLUSTERY BENEATH THE CONTINUED ROTATING VORTMAX AND MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW / TROF AXIS. WILL SEE THE LOW DEEPEN AS IT BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED, THE CYCLONIC TROWALING AXIS BEGINNING TO EMERGE OUT OF THE E, PUSHING W INTO INTERIOR N NEW ENGLAND. LOWS MAINLY SUBSEQUENT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, LEAN WITH CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE AROUND THE UPPER 30S.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...     WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWERS OVER N/NE MASSACHUSETTS, ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN, OTHERWISE A CHILLY, RAW DAY. TROWAL AXIS AND CYCLONIC REARWARD ASCENT BEHIND THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW. DEFORMATION BACK ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND, ROUGHLY SW-NE, ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE TROWALING MOIST-AXIS. OTHERWISE BLUSTERY NW WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES, MIX-DOWN OF FAST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. BROKEN CEILINGS, PREFER TO ACTUALLY LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S, CAN'T RULE OUT UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN IF PRECIPITATION MAINTAINS A LONG DURATION, SUBSEQUENT LOWER COLUMN COOLING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF CLEARING OUT, WINDS DIMINISHING. CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING RESULTING IN PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE. DRIER AIR WORKING IN REARWARD, COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL CONTINUING AND LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE WINDS STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE, WILL STRAY FROM COLDEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. STILL LEAN WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 30S, HIGH TERRAIN IN THE 20S.

&&


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...     HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU/FRI * RAIN AND COASTAL WIND SAT WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE INTERIOR * UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES SUN/MON

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLDER WEATHER CONTINUES AS DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. DIMINISHING WIND BY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

STILL WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A POTENT STORM TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK AND TIMING, THERE SIS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WET SNOW AND/OR SLEET. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONGEST WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A BIT ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND. SO, SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

LOTS OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO LOW POSITION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION.

&&


.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF TODAY... RA BECOMING WIDESPREAD, LIFTING NE. EMBEDDED +RA, POSSIBLE TSRA. CAN'T RULE OUT ASSOCIATED GUSTY SW WINDS, UPWARDS AROUND 30 KT. LOW-END VFR / MVFR, LOWER WITH RA. S WINDS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF PSF-BOS, N WINDS OTHERWISE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE RA MAINLY N/E OF PSF-IJD-BID AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT... WINDS REVERTING NW, BECOMING BLUSTERY. ASSOCIATED -RA CHANCES THAT LINGERING MAINLY N OF PSF-GHG. WITH RA, LOW-END VFR / MVFR LINGERS. GUSTS WITH NW WINDS UP AROUND 20 KTS, HIGHEST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY... CONTINUED BLUSTERY NW WINDS, INCREASING GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY UP AS HIGH AS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. RA CONTINUED TO LINGER N/NE OF PSF-GHG, MAINLY OVER NE MA AND POINTS N/E. BKN CIGS MOSTLY, LOW-END VFR / MVFR, ESPECIALLY LOWER FOR HIGH TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BLUSTERY NW WINDS DIMINISHING AS DO CIGS. SCT LOW-END VFR / MVFR MORE LIKELY FOR HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE.

KBOS TERMINAL... MOST RA ACTIVITY AROUND 18-20Z, WATCHING CLOSELY FOR +RA AND SW WIND GUST THREAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL / SMALL HAIL. TEMPO FOR LOWER CONDITIONS. MONITORING FOR VCTS IN THE FIRST 6-HOURS. LOWER CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL... MAINLY VCSH WITH SW WINDS TODAY, LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. BIGGER STORY STARTING TONIGHT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS, UP AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE RA.

SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 KT. CHANCE RA, FZRA LIKELY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. CHANCE RA.

SUNDAY: WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.

&&



MARINE...  
   FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SE WINDS TODAY AND BUILDING SEAS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CT, RI, AND SE MA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL BUT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BRIEFLY. LOW PRESSURE HEADS TO GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 25-30KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.

FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.

SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN LIKELY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.

SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-232>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...  SIPPRELL LONG TERM...  BELK AVIATION...  BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...  BELK/SIPPRELL
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