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FXUS61 KBOX 261955 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
355 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

SYNOPSIS... 

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...  

4 PM UPDATE...

QUIET, PLEASANT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TO CLOSE OUT THE DAY, W WINDS STILL DRIVING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. LOW TO MID 60 HIGHS TOPPING OUT WITH 66 OBSERVED HERE AT OUR OFFICE, WILL BEGIN THE DOWNWARD TREND INTO THIS EVENING, FASTER MORE SO TO THE W WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S CENTRAL AND W.

TONIGHT...

SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS LINGER, ESPECIALLY N/E, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. OPPORTUNITY FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING, GIVEN RECENT ABUNDANT RAIN, CAN'T RULE OUT SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN SPOTS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHELTERED REGIONS SUCH AS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND DENSE FORESTS. PARENT TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, STABLE AFTERWARDS WITH SW INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND BEGINNING ONSHORE S FLOW BY MORNING. LOWS IN THE 40S, SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...    

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

LATE DAY INTO EVENING MODERATE, POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. S- STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED E. CAPTURING SUB-TROPICAL, ANOMALOUS MOIST PWAT PLUME IN EXCESS OF 1-INCH INTO S NEW ENGLAND FETCHED VIA STRONG SOUTHERLIES. FORCED ASCENT BENEATH BROADER DIFFLUENCE, FOCUS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONT PARENT TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. BOTH CONVERGENT AND ISENTROPIC UPSLOPING LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE BOUNDARY, FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT, BOTH DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE AND LIFT APPARENT. INDICATIONS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES, MOIST ADIABATIC, CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICATIONS.

ALTOGETHER A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH A POTENTIAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GREATEST CONCERN FOR PM COMMUTE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SOME DIVERGENCE ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM HIGH-RES MODELS AS WELL AS TIMING, CENTERING AROUND 2P (18Z), GFS FASTER THAN OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN WITH HREF TRENDS WITH BULLSEYE ON SE NEW ENGLAND OF GENERALLY 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1-INCH, ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS OBSERVING CONVECTION.

FOLLOW-UP WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT. BECOMING DIFFUSE BENEATH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING, HARDLY MUCH AIRMASS CHANGE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. DIURNAL COOLING, VISIBILITY ISSUES LOOK CERTAIN THRU SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING.

&&


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...    

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY * DRY AND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SW FLOW PREVAILS SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AFTER MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF, ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST, PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH 60S TO AROUND 70 AWAY FROM SOUTH COAST. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS NEAR BERKSHIRES SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON LARGER SCALE, CUTOFF LOW OVER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY HEADS EAST AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF SNE. COLDER AIR ALOFT MEANS HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN 50S TO NEAR 60 BOTH DAYS.

WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF SOUTHEAST COAST. LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW AND DRY WEATHER. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES WITH RATHER HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&


.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF TODAY...

VFR, MVFR/IFR LINGERING AN HOUR OR TWO OVER THE IMMEDIATE E/SE COAST. BREEZY W WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SCT-BKN 4-5 KFT CIGS.

TONIGHT...

VFR. W WINDS, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING, BECOMING LIGHT. WATCHING INTERIOR SHELTERED VALLEYS, DENSE FORESTS, WHETHER SHALLOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED. OTHERWISE MID-HIGH CIGS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

RAIN IN BY 16-18Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TOWARDS IFR-LIFR. HEAVIEST AROUND 21Z WITH A RISK TSRA OVER E/SE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS, POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY SE COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF SW LLWS AT 40 KTS. AREAS OF FG DEVELOPING INTO EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. POTENTIAL BEGINNING TREND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OF CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR WITH W WINDS, GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER CIGS INCREASING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. -RA/RA IN BY 18-19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR WITH W WINDS, GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER CIGS INCREASING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. -RA/RA IN BY 17-18Z.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.

SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.

SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.

&&



MARINE...  
  

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF TODAY... SW WINDS SHIFTING W TOWARDS LATE, LAST OF FOG / LOW VISIBILITY PUSHING OUT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT... W WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. GOOD VISIBILITY.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... RAIN MOVING IN TOWARDS NOON, LOWER VISIBILITY WITH MODERATE, POSSIBLY HEAVY OUTCOMES IN ADDITION TO A LOW RISK OF THUNDER. INCREASING S WINDS, PEAKING AROUND LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET WITH LOW VISIBILITY THAT'LL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FOG INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.

TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.

&&


EQUIPMENT...  

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER SERVING PROVIDENCE IS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS. THE PHONE COMPANY HAS PRIORITIZED THE ISSUES AND IS WORKING TO GET THE WEATHER BROADCAST BACK ON THE AIR AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE TRANSMITTER SERVING HYANNIS IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&


SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...  SIPPRELL LONG TERM...  JWD AVIATION...  SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...  SIPPRELL/JWD EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX STAFF
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