FXUS61 KBOX 161914
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
314 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST
 &&
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO MID-
EVENING OTHERWISEDRY AND PLEASANT THROUGH FRI NIGHT OUTSIDE
OF THE WILDFIRE SMOKE THIS EVENING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
- CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE UPTAKE FOR
SATURDAY PM INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
- A COOLER START TO THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
&&
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO MID-EVENING OTHERWISEDRY AND PLEASANT THROUGH FRI NIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE WILDFIRE SMOKE THIS EVENING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING HOWEVERTHE LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORCING
PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP MOST OF US DRY A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE INTO NORTHERN MA AND PERHAPS THE REMOTE RISK FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN FAR NORTHEAST MA OTHERWISEGENERALLY A
DRY/VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH SOME MORE SMOKE MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOONBUT THE WORST OF IT WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL GET SHOVED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FRI
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF
US FRIDAY NIGHTBUT WE WILL MAINTAIN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S WITH MIDDLE 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON
KEY MESSAGE 2CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE UPTAKE FOR SATURDAY PM INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY, BRINGING PROLONGED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURGING PWATS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PWATS OVER 20", WITH SOME AS HIGH AS 30",
WHICH LENDS FAVOR TO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
ECMWF AND CMC ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 60-80% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 05" OF
QPF (MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS AND UP INTO CENTRAL CT
AND RI), WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS TRENDING THOSE HIGHER PERCENTILES
OFF OUR SOUTHERN SHORES AND FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING, BUT DISCUSSION HAS STARTED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES (AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE) ON POTENTIALLY
INCREASING THAT RISK TO A SIGHT (2/4), PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF CT AND RI GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH
CONSENSUS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SOME HEAVIER BANDS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THOSE AREAS
INSTABILITY PROFILES CONTINUE TO LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT CSU
MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW (5-15%)
CHANCES THAT SOME STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE
KEY MESSAGE 3A COOLER START TO THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN SUNDAY ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE, WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A
BRIEF SPELL OF DRIER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOMEWHERE OVER THE APPALACHIAN REGION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND
&&
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
18Z TAF UPDATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTHIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF SMOKE THIS EVENING AND
PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA WE WILL BE ON
THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE SMOKESO NOT SURE VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED THAT MUCH BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF REDUCTIONS SOUTHWEST OF A KBDL TO KPVD LINE THIS
SMOKE SHOULD BE SHOVED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI
BEHIND THIS EVENING/S COLD FRONT
W WIND GUSTS 25+ KNOTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING NW WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE SW BY
MID-LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST
KBOS TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF MAIN RISK OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENINGBUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE LOW RISK FOR IT BRIEFLY OCCURRING AT KBOS
KBDL TERMINALHIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FLIRT WITH THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWEST
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BREEZY CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
SUNDAY: VFR BREEZY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE BREEZY CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA
&&
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTHIGH CONFIDENCE
GUSTY NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT W WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OTHERWISEHIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS EVENING/S COLD FRONT KEEPING
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS UP TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LOCAL ROUGH SEAS CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
&&
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CTAIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004
MAAIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ002>024-
026
RIAIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008
MARINESMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256
&&
DISCUSSIONFRANK/MCMINN
AVIATIONFRANK/MCMINN
MARINEFRANK/MCMINN
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