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FXUS61 KBOX 191413 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1013 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

SYNOPSIS...  A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER OCCURS LATE WEEK.

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...  

COLD FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WITH A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE MARITIMES, CREATING A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MUCH OF CT/RI AND SE MASS WHILE NUMEROUS CLOUD STREETS FEED ONSHORE ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND NORTHERN RI. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASS. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS, THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE OFFSHORE FRONT, MAY STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES, AS IT SHOWN BY RADAR. ALSO SOME LIMITED CONCERN FOR SPRINKLES FROM THE CLOUD STREETS COMING OFF THE GULF OF MAINE.

MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED 10C AT 850 MB AND 13C AT 900 MB...EQUIV TO 8C AT 850. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO IN THE 70S WHERE SUNSHINE GENERATES MIXING, SUCH AS NORTHERN MASS. WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, EXPECT FLOW OFF THAT WATER WILL BRING LOWER 70S IN COASTAL MASS AND RI.

CHATHAM SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS OF 20 KNOTS BELOW 900 MB. MOST FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALSO SHOW 20 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE AND AVAILABLE FOR GUSTS. SOME MORNING MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 27 KNOTS, SUGGESTING GUSTS MAY OVERACHIEVE FORECAST VALUES TODAY. WE NUDGED GUSTS UP A COUPLE OF KNOTS ALONG THE COAST AND THE WATERS.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...     HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE MARITIMES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY NOSE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MASS WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SLIP S OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO, MIGHT STILL SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO MONDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NE WIND FLOW THERE.

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...     HIGHLIGHTS...

* MORE HUMID WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY * DRY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... A CUTOFF, STALLED WITHIN WEAK FLOW S OF THE MEAN N-STREAM JET CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. INVERTED RIDGING RESULTS, LINKED TO A MARITIMES HIGH PRES. THE PRODUCTION OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM WITHIN THIS INVERTED RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL, BUT LOWS ABOVE THANKS TO MARINE INFLUENCE. WED, DEEPENING WAVE LINKED TO A VORTEX NEAR NUNAVUT WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRES LINKED TO THE WAVE WILL SHIFT INTO N NEW ENGLAND, FRONTAL LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA INTO WED NIGHT. TROF AXIS SHIFTS E THU AND LIFTS, ALLOWING BERMUDA HIGH TO ONCE AGAIN FORCE WARMER, HUMID AIR BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES... ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUE, DRAWING AIR OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WHERE SSTS REST IN THE LOW 70S NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TUE/WED, KEEPING THEM MAINLY BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 70S MOST LIKELY). OVERNIGHT MINS MILD, AS DWPTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LATE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS DWPTS DROP INTO THE 50S FRI BEFORE RISING BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE LATE WEEK, LIKELY EXCEEDING SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, (MID TO UPPER 80S).

PRECIPITATION... ASIDE FROM DRIZZLE LINKED TO ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LINGER INTO TUE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WED AS A WEAK WARM FRONT, THEN COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING PWATS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OR NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINE THIS WITH LLJ NEAR 30 KT AND REASONABLY HIGH ENSEMBLE PROBS OF CAPE +500J/KG, AND A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH RAINFALL FOR EARLY AUGUST FOR MANY PARTS OF S NEW ENGLAND, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL WED AND WED NIGHT. INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES NEAR 1030HPA BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&


.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR N OF A LINE FROM BOSTON HARBOR IN MASS TO SFZ IN RI, TO IJD IN EASTERN CT, AND MVFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH. LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS LINGER OVER RI AND SE MASS MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN EXPAND WEST ACROSS CT SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF MASS AND NORTHERN CT DURING SUNDAY, WITH VFR REMAINING NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE SUNDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT, WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BY AROUND 04Z, LOWEST ACROSS RI/SE MASS AND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH PERSISTENT NE WIND FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING OFF THE OCEAN WITH A BASE NEAR 2000 FEET. A MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL BE AS CLOSE AS HULL AND PARTS OF BOSTON HARBOR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-22 KT AT TIMES. MVFR CIGS RETURN BY AROUND 04Z TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA, PATCHY BR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.

&&



MARINE...  
   FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT NE WIND FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARRAGANSETT BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LOCAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NE WIND FLOW CONTINUES, BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHES DURING MONDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT EARLY, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM N-S LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER, BECOMING MORE SPOTTY ON MONDAY BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS. MAINLY GOOD VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233- 234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY/EVT SHORT TERM...  EVT LONG TERM...  DOODY AVIATION...  WTB/DOODY/EVT
MARINE...  WTB/DOODY/EVT
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