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FXUS61 KBOX 191404 AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

SYNOPSIS...  SEASONABLE, DRY, COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BRINGS DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT THEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...   10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN LOWER CLOUDS SCOUR OUT, THERE WILL BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...     TONIGHT...

RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, LEANING WITH COOLEST OF MOS GUIDANCE. TALKING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. NO NEED FOR THE AC, OPEN YOUR WINDOWS.

WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY A DRY, SEASONABLE DAY UNDER THE CONTINUED WEIGHT OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHIFTING TO THE E, RETURN S FLOW LATE, HOWEVER LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW E-COASTAL SEA-BREEZES. MEANWHILE, WEAK, FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE EMERGING OUT OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC-ASCENT AHEAD OF A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA, LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING INITIALLY, ANY SKIRTING RAIN TO HOLD OFF LATER. AGAIN, DRY FORECAST.

&&


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...     MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK, THEN SHOULD UNDERGO MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE CHANGES WILL BE PREDICATED UPON THE TIMING OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PHASE WITH A MORE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES, AS WELL AS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY, TRENDING TO MODERATE FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS BY FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL NOT TRY TO NARROW THE WINDOW OF THESE SHOWERS MUCH. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE COUNTY. MORE CHANGES TO THIS TIMING ARE VERY POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET. HUMIDITY START OUT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE, THEN SHOULD INCREASE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&


.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON... LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OUTER CAPE AND ACK WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR WITH N WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20KT.

TONIGHT.. VFR. HOWEVER CONDITIONS JUST RIGHT WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEYS, MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MID TO UPPER CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY... VFR. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S/SW. ALLOWANCE FOR E-COASTAL SEA-BREEZES TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z. INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CIGS LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL... HOLD VFR THROUGHOUT. NW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY.

KBDL TERMINAL... MAINTAIN VFR HOWEVER NOT RULING OUT MVFR WHEN OBSERVING UPSTREAM TRENDS PRESENTLY OVER NW MA. AN OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MORNING PUSH BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WIND SHIFT AT THE TERMINAL AROUND 940Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.

SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.

&&



MARINE...  
   FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

N WINDS GUST UP TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR OCEAN WATERS E OF CAPE COD FOR LEFTOVER 4-5 FT SEAS. TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL YIELDING LIGHT WINDS, GOOD BOATING WEATHER. E ONSHORE SEA BREEZE FLOW WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.

SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...  SIPPRELL LONG TERM...  BELK AVIATION...  JWD
MARINE...  BELK/SIPPRELL
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