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FXUS61 KCAR 020939 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
539 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HURRICANE EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION OFF CAPE COD FRIDAY EVENING THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE TO WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HEAT CONTINUES FOR DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-90S AGAIN AS CLOUD COVER FROM THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH WILL NOT REACH SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID NOT GO WITH HEAT ADVISORY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. ALSO EXPECT A SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF WITHIN 10 TO 20 MILES OF THE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTH BY MIDDAY AND START SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED CAPE REACHES NEAR 1500 J/KG IN A LINE FROM HOULTON WESTWARD BY MID-AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR IN THE H600 TO H500 RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DRY AIR ALOFT...AN INVERTED V UNDER H850 AND WINDS ALOFT OVER 40 KTS RAISES SOME CONCERN ABOUT STRONG GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED CHC OF TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN ZONES AND MAINTAINED ISOLD FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH FREEZING LVLS AND SKINNY CAPE ABV THE FREEZING LVL MAKES HAIL UNLIKELY. STORM TOP POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA OF 30 TO 35K FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS XPCTD...TROP STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR COASTAL ZNS PER TPC. WILL ISSUE NEW ZNS TO REFLECT HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE INLAND TROP WND WTCHS AS TRACK OF EARL AND POTENTIAL EFFECTS BECOME MORE CLEAR. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. MAIN FOCUS IS EARL W/ CONSENSUS TRACK NEAR YARMOUTH NS EARLY SAT AM. IF THIS TRACK HOLDS...LIKELY WILL SEE JUST TROP STORM CONDS FAR SRN AND SERN AREAS. CONF CALL UPCOMING AND MAY BE ISSUING WATCHES SHORTLY. HEAVY RAINFALL: TUF FCST HERE AS ALL MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST AN AREA OF HVY RAIN ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY W/ EARL W/ ANOTHER AREA DISPLACED WELL NW OF EARL. MDLS VARY A BIT W/ THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND AREA BUT PRIMARY FAVORED LOCTN APPEARS TO BE FAR WRN MAINE INTO SRN QUEBEC. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE EACH MODEL HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT DEPICTION WHERE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR....WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF WHICH INDICATES UP TO AN INCH MOST AREAS W/ PSBLY 2 INCHES WRN AREAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE...COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDS THAT SETUP IF EARL TRACKS CLOSE TO THE AREA WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY, PROBABLY WOULD NEED 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR FLOODING WHICH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. WINDS: AT THIS TIME EXPECT HIGHEST WINDS SPEED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO A MORE NORTHERN POSITION WOULD MEAN HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH WINDS HIGHER EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND. HAZARDOUS SURF: ASSUMING MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK OF EARL PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES REACHING COAST. THIS WILL HAZARDOUS FOR SPECTATORS WATCHING THE SURF. LONG PERIOD WAVES BECOME MUCH TALLER IN THE SURF ZONE AND CAN CATCH SPECTATORS OFF GUARD POSSIBLY WASHING THEN INTO THE SURF. COASTAL FLOODING: FORTUNATELY THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS MINIMAL FOR MONTH WITH SPRING TIDE NOT OCCURRING UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 7:17 AM. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WAVE RUN-UP AND SETUP ON EXPOSED BEACHES. AGAIN ASSUMING CONSENSUS TRACK STORM SURGE POTENTIAL MINIMIZED WITH GREATEST PRESSURE SETUP REMAINING OFF-SHORE. ALTHOUGH WIND SETUP CAN OCCUR WITH NORTHEAST WIND...THIS TOO WILL BE MINIMIZED ON WEST SIDE OF SYSTEM DO TO LOWER WIND SPEED. BANGOR TIDAL FLOODING: AGAIN TIMING AND PHASE OF TIDE NOT FAVORABLE. WILL WATCH FOR MAXIMUM SURGE OCCURRING LATER IN MORNING THAN EXPECTED. ALSO WATCH FOR LOW TRACK FURTHER WEST WHICH COULD BRING PRESSURE SURGE INTO PENOBSCOT BAY AND PHASE WITH TIDE RESULTING IN NON-LINEAR AMPLIFICATION. SURGE MODEL MAY NOT HANDLE THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGEST WIND FORCING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIND ARE THE MAIN STORIES IN THE EXTENDED. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT NE MAINE SAT EVENING WITH SOME LOW- TOP CAA SHWRS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY SUNDAY AS H850 WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE MIXED TO THE SFC WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. HIGHS IN THE FAR NORTH MAY NOT HIT 60F...A MARKED CHANGE FROM THIS WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HIGH PRES BUILDS TUES INTO EARLY WEDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND TEMPS RECOVERING TOWARDS 70F IN THE CWA.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD MOST AREAS FRI W/ CONDS DETERIORATING TO IFR MOST AREAS IN RAIN LATER FRI NGT THRU SAT. MVFR CONDS XPCTD ACROSS THE N W/ SC CIGS AND CAA THRU SUN N THEN VFR SUN NGT AND MON W/ VFR CONDS S SUN THRU MON. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY.

MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPDATED THE CWF TO REFLECT THE TROP STORM WATCH WHICH WE JUST ISSUED. TROP STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS COULD THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...  TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...  TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ050>052.

&& NEAR TERM...MWALKER SHORT TERM...KHW LONG TERM...MWALKER AVIATION... MWALKER
MARINE... MWALKER/KHW

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