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FXUS61 KCAR 191505 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

SYNOPSIS...  A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY ON A GUSTY WIND IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM UPDATE...STRATOCUMULUS IS ERODING IN WESTERN AREAS AND WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ERODE FURTHER EAST ONCE THE COLD POOL ALOFT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL USHER A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. THE PWAT LAST EVENING ON THE KCAR SOUNDING WAS 1.96", WHICH WAS NOT ONLY A DAILY RECORD, BUT ONLY 0.04" SHY OF THE JUNE RECORD. THE DRIER AIR AND EXCELLENT MIXING WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE, AND AFTER A MUGGY EARLY MORNING START DOWNEAST (DEW POINT OF 69F AT BANGOR AS OF 3 AM) THE DEW POINTS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE COMFORTABLE 40S TODAY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 800H, AND WITH SOME DECENT WIND ALOFT IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH, AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. IN THE NORTH, SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLY COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY MORNING.

&&


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...     HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT MAY PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&


LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...     THE LONG TERM WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR MONDAY.

&&


.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND TODAY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARD SEAS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING ON THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  NONE.
MARINE...  NONE.

&&


NEAR TERM...CB/MCB SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...  CB/DUDA
MARINE...  CB/DUDA
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