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FXUS61 KCAR 300925 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
525 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

SYNOPSIS...  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 530AM UPDATE...INCREASED HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FOR EASTERN ZONES. SHARPENED SEA BREEZE TIMING IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS STRENGTHENING TODAY AND WILL SERVE TO SLOW AND WEAKEN AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE DOMINANCE OF THIS HIGH, HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS OCCURRING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH AS FAR NORTHWARD AS BANGOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE OCCLUSION WILL ENTER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE COMBINATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESTORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT UNDER AN INVERSION. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE DOWN EAST REGION WHERE MID 40S ARE FORECAST.
&&


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...     COOL, CLOUDY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE AIR FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OUT IN THE NORTH WOODS THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND THE TYPICAL LESS MARINE INFLUENCE THAT THE NORTH WOODS RECEIVES. ANY STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WITH A STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS EXIST. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT BELIEVE AT THIS TIME THAT THE BEST SHOT AT STORMS LATE THURSDAY IS INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
&&


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...     HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON FRIDAY FOR STORMS DUE TO THE CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE PLUMMETS BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. WENT WITH BLEND OF MODELS WHICH GIVES CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&


.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. FVE HAS IFR CIGS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS SUCH AS FVE, CAR AND BGR THIS MORNING. TONIGHT, IFR CIGS WILL MOVE ASHORE TO BHB AND BGR IN THE EVENING AND MOST TERMINALS WILL HAVE IFR CIGS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AREAS OF IFR TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG DUE TO MARINE LAYER. DON'T EXPECT MUCH IMPROVING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS SOME AREAS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. NEARLY EVERYWHERE GOES DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONG MARINE LAYER. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND COULD BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TOWARDS 3 TO 4 FEET.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  NONE.
MARINE...  NONE.
&&


NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...  MCW/FOISY
MARINE...  MCW/FOISY
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