FXUS61 KCAR 191610
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
 SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY, TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY, THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY
 &&
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1210PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
UPDATE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONHIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING, AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY, AS NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO CANADA ON
THURSDAY LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING THERE IS A STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK HANGING AROUND DOWNEAST COORDINATOR DUE
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WARM AIR ADVECTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
FRONTAL SYSTEM, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-40S IN THE
NORTH AND HIGH 40S/LOW-50S IN THE SOUTH WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST, CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION, HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN, INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A RESULT, LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
&&
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRAY INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE
BELOW 3K FT THINKING IS THAT THIS MAY MAKE IT WAY UP TOWARD THE
HOULTON/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS AFTER DAYBREAK ALL IN ALL, THURSDAY
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTERNOON HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD THE MID 50S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BUT
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND THE COAST MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST
THE APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH CLOSES OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY, GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE LOW AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID 40S
&&
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP WESTWARD AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVE EAST AND HOW QUICKLY
THE COLDER AIR CAN PUSH IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY A STRAY SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S SUNDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW OR RAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK
&&
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING THEN SE WINDS 5-10 KTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LLWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
KBGR/KBHB: VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS
SHORT TERM:
THUIFR/LIFR CIGS IN PATCHY FOG EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR AFTERNOON
S WIND
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIIFR LOW CIGS AND RAIN E TO SE WIND EARLY,
BECOMING N LATE
FRI NIGHTIFR RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH N TO NW WIND
SATIFR/MVFR NORTH EARLY IN SNOW, OTHERWISE VFR ALL
TERMINALS W TO NW WIND
SUNVFR W WIND
&&
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WINDS AND HIGH SEA HEIGHTS WINDS
FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KTS THIS TODAY, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SE BY
TONIGHT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED
DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OUTER WATERS COULD SEE
SEAS FROM 4-6 FT, AND INTER-COASTALS COULD SEE SEAS 3-5 FT
SHORT TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM AT TIMES IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AND IN RAIN THURSDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
&&
HYDROLOGY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK LOSS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAINS, MAINLY IN
SHELTERED WOODED AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTH AN
INCREASED PERIOD OF SNOWMELT COMES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THANKFULLY, THE NATURAL FLOW UNDER RIVER ICE IS BELOW NORMAL
AND RIVER RISES WILL REMAIN GRADUAL ON THE LARGER RIVERS, THOUGH
SOME SMALLER STREAMS HAVE RISEN FASTER RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO UNDERGO WEAKENING THROUGH THERMAL ROT
RIVER ICE IS BREAKING UP IN MANY LOCATIONS, LEADING TO AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RIVERS DOWNEAST ARE INCREASINGLY BECOMING ICE-FREE
AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER THIS MORNING NEAR
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE ST CROIX STREAM WATER WAS FLOWING
AROUND THE JAM AND FLOODING ISSUES WERE NOT REPORTED
AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON THE PLEASANT RIVER AT THE PLEASANT
ST BRIDGE IN MILO THE PLEASANT RIVER ROAD IS CURRENTLY CLOSED
DUE TO WATER ON THE ROAD
&&
EQUIPMENT
THE ASOS IN CARIBOU, KCAR, IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, AND
CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MANUALLY INPUT INTO THE DAILY CLIMATE
REPORTS FROM A BACKUP SENSOR
ADDITIONALLY, THE AWOS IN PRESQUE ISLE, KPQI, IS SCHEDULED TO
BE DOWN FOR SCHEDULED FAA MAINTENANCE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY
&&
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MENONE
MARINESMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051
&&
NEAR TERMBRENNAN/LAFLASH
SHORT TERMTWD
LONG TERMTWD
AVIATIONBRENNAN/LAFLASH/TWD
MARINEBRENNAN/LAFLASH/TWD
HYDROLOGY
EQUIPMENT
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