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FXUS61 KCAR 202302 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
602 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY AND CREST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIND SPEEDS AT RAINWISE SITES HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DOWNEAST, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SO HAVE LET WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OUT OF MAINE THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUT OF LOWER TOP CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A 925MB LOW LEVEL JET THAT MOVED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND CAUSED STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNEAST MAINE TODAY WILL ALSO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT, SEE NO REASON TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT STRATOCU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH WHILE BREAKING UP IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND DOWNEAST. CAA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THESE CLOUDS AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEATHER SYSTEM PLAGUING THE AREA TODAY WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH IMPROVED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN RATHER QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND WE WILL BE WATCHING A STORM SYSTEM WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST. THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BRING THE STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST SPREADING PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HOLDS THE RIDGE IN STRONG AND KEEPS THE STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. WILL LEAN TO THE GFS AND GEM MODELS...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON PRETTY TOUGH BEFORE WE GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY...HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH HAVE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE STORM PATH ON THIS STORM WILL PLAY A MAJOR PART IN PRECIP AMOUNT AND TOTALS...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN WITH GMOS THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE CONDITIONS FROM BGR SOUTHWARD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT LEAVES THE STATE THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR.

MARINE... NEAR TERM: A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE FRONT. STEADY WINDS ARE OVER 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY LEAVING THE SCA OUT THROUGH TONIGHT.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...  NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&& NEAR TERM...FOSTER/MWALKER SHORT TERM...LERICOS LONG TERM...HILL AVIATION... FOSTER/MWALKER
MARINE... FOSTER/MWALKER/LERICOS

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