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FXUS61 KCAR 201607 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1107 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017

SYNOPSIS...  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AND WILL USHER A COLDER AIR MASS INTO MAINE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM UPDATE...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS SUPPORTED BY A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR AND WEBCAMS. UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND THE AIR STABILIZES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MUCH COLDER AND BREEZY TODAY WITH FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH WOODS AND NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER, SO ANTICIPATE GUSTY WEST WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL; HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TODAY, WHILE TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

&&


SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...     AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. A SURFACE HIGH WILL RETREAT WELL OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE 850H TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 15-18C BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED, AND WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 0C ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE DOWNEAST REGION BY AROUND MIDDAY, BUT MAY HOLD UNTIL SUNSET IN THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES (F) WARMER THAN MONDAY, WITH THE MOST WARMING NOTED DOWNEAST WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES TOWARD THE COAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO MAINE BY LATE WED. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAIN FROM A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY HOURS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH BANGOR PERHAPS JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM AND GFS BRUSHING THE AREA, AND THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AND HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL INCREASE THE POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION WHERE THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL RAIN FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...     AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY WARP BACK INTO EASTERN MAINE DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LACKING DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WED NIGHT USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, AND RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 30S IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WORK ACROSS THE REGION LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SATURDAY AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PHASING OF THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET, AND NO INDICATIONS OF ANY COASTAL LOWS.

&&


.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

SHORT TERM: A MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUE, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR EXPECTED IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WED, WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR IN RAIN AND FOG AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR THU INTO THU EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR BY LATE THU NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. VFR EXPECTED FRI AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS WITH MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: BOTH THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ABATE A BIT THIS MORNING, AND GUSTS MAY ONLY BE 30 KT OR SO OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE LESSENING LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEREFORE, EXTENDING BOTH HEADLINES SEEMS APPROPRIATE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 6-10 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THEN SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT, BUT THE SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS. CONDITONS MAY FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&


.CLIMATE... A RECORD 0.77" OF RAIN FELL AT CARIBOU, MAINE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD FOR 11/19 OF 0.67" SET IN 1968. THIS WAS THE WEAKEST DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&


NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...  HASTINGS/CB
MARINE...  HASTINGS/CB CLIMATE...CB
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