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FXUS61 KCAR 241313 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023

SYNOPSIS  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY

&&


NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ 9:13 AM UPDATENO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, WINDS AND CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH

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

&&


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ SATURDAY CALM BEFORE THE STORM SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY AND FAIRLY MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S

SETUP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT STORM THE SETUP FOR THE NEXT STORM WILL FEATURE A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY TO SW QUEBEC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO MEANWHILE, A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE LOW POINT WILL FORM AROUND NEW YORK CITY SATURDAY EVENING AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NE TO DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY SUNDAY, BECOMING THE NEW PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE RATHER THAN THE SW QUEBEC LOW THE DOWNEAST MAINE LOW MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL KEEP MUCH WARM AIR FROM MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN MAINE, KEEPING THE EVENT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FOR MUCH OF DOWNEAST AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA, WITH SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE GETTING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW

SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING TIMING OF ONSET IS PRETTY CONFIDENT AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IT WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AREAWIDE, BUT TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW APPROACHES AND BRINGS AN INCREASE E/SE ONSHORE WIND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW WINDS DON'T LOOK TOO BADSOME GUSTS TO 30 OR PERHAPS 35 MPH NEAR THE COAST, AND 20-30 MPH GUSTS INLANDSTRONGEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE IN INTENSITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THE STORM LIKELY COMING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY DAY PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY

SUNDAY THE HEAVIER PART OF THE STORM CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH DOWNEAST MOST OF DOWNEAST SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS SURGING INTO THE LOW 40S, WITH THE MORE MODERATE PRECIP TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY STILL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY NORTH OF ROUGHLY MILLINOCKET, THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP TO NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH, IT COULD HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP GETS LIGHTER IN INTENSITY SNOW WILL BE WET/HIGH DENSITY IN CHARACTER WINDS NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUEGENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT THE TRIPLE POINT LOW EXITS TO THE EAST, THOUGH WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, LIGHT SNOW COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE EVENING IN THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AREAWIDE, BUT STILL FAIRLY LIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPS DIPPING BACK A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING FOR PLACES THAT TOPPED FREEZING SUNDAY, BUT HOPEFULLY SLOWLY ENOUGH TO WHERE THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A FLASH FREEZE ON THE ROADS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR A STORM OF THIS STRENGTH AT THIS FORECAST RANGE QUITE CONFIDENT IN GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF MILLINOCKET IN THE FAR NORTH, MAINLY NORTH OF CARIBOU, THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF OVER 8 INCHES FOR THE STORM, BUT THINK THAT IF THIS OCCURS, IT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE IN A GREATER THAN 12 HOUR PERIOD (OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS), SO DIDN'T ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT MODELS/ENSEMBLES REALLY SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING, PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK MAIN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING OF THE DOWNEAST CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN, AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WOULD DETERMINE THIS THIS WOULD IMPACT SNOW TOTALS DOWNEAST AND WHETHER THERE IS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW (MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT), VS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES (FURTHER SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST)

&&


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE EXITING WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND AREA IS LEFT UNDER FAIRLY LIGHT NW FLOW MON/TUE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH IN THIS PATTERN TOWARD TUE NIGHT/WED, MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OF VARYING STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FROM W TO E A FEW SOLUTIONS DEEPEN IT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND DEVELOP A NOR'EASTER THAT COULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT A MAJORITY KEEP ANY ACTION S/SE OF THE AREA, WITH THE WEATHER REMAINING FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT DEVIATING TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THE IDEA OF A WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, BUT NEW 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 0Z GEFS ENSEMBLES HAD MORE MEMBERS TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEDNESDAY SYSTEM DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES FAVOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES

&&


AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS VFR DOWNEAST VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TODAY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT

SHORT TERM: SATURDAYVFR WITH LIGHT WIND

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAYIFR/LIFR SNOWMIXED WITH RAIN DOWNEAST SOUTHEAST/EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAYIFR/LIFR SUNDAY EVENING, BECOMING VFR/MVFR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT VFR FOR MONDAY NE-N WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY EVENING, BECOMING N-NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYVFR LIGHT NW WINDS

&&


MARINE NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON WINDS/SEAS THEN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE

SHORT TERM: EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT FOR SATURDAY EASTERLY GALES POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT TO SUN MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WINDS SWITCH TO NW LATE SUN INTO MONDAY AND DECREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY LATE MONDAY SEAS PEAK AT AROUND 7 FT SUN

&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MENONE MARINESMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051

&&


NEAR TERMCLARK/NORCROSS SHORT TERMFOISY LONG TERMFOISY AVIATIONCLARK/NORCROSS/FOISY MARINECLARK/NORCROSS/FOISY
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