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FXUS61 KCAR 262200 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

SYNOPSIS...  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 6 PM UPDATE: THE LAST OF THE STEADY RAIN IS NOW ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND NORTH WOODS WITH A FEW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING REMAINS RELATED TO THE RECENT RAIN AND SNOWMELT. REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED OR WITH WATER ON THEM IN CARIBOU, PRESQUE ISLE, FORT FAIRFIELD, AND SINCLAIR. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT A WARM RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL BE TRACKING NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT OVER THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY.

&&


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...     UPPER TROF REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED. RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD ON AN INCH. HOWEVER, THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS AND BROOKS CONTINUING TO RUN NEAR BANKFULL. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING TO OUR WEST. DIURNAL INSTABILTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING INTO SUNDAY. AGAIN, ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT EXPECT CONTINUE ELEVATED FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...     THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS BY THURSDAY COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN A FEW PLACES. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY.

&&


.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST TONIGHT AND MVFR OVER THE NORTH, THEN VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT SOME AREA DOWNEAST AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: A SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 10 FEET TONIGHT AND 6 TO 8 FEET ON FRIDAY. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&


.
HYDROLOGY...   RIVERS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RISE IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY. MANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE NORTHERN RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING DOWNEAST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL STREAM RISES AND LOW LYING FLOODING FOLLOWING THE HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER ABOVE MATTAWAMKEAG. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH SUNDAY, AND ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 031. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015>017-032.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&


NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...  BLOOMER/CB/DUDA
MARINE...  BLOOMER/CB/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...  BLOOMER/CB
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