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FXUS61 KCAR 172002 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
302 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019

SYNOPSIS...  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&


SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...     MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LGT SNFL AFFECTING SRN PTNS OF THE OUR RGN SHOULD HAVE EXITED BY THE BEGINNING OF MON EVE, WITH REMNANT CLD CVR GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MON NGT. ARCTIC AIR OF MDT RESIDENCE WILL CONT TO HOLD OVR THE FA THRU WED WITH MSLY FAIR SKIES, WITH TUE LOOKING TO BE THE MOST BRISK DAY AND TUE NGT WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE AS WINDS DIMINISH, THE COLDEST NGT.

CLDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE W WED NGT AS A S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO APCH WITH OVRNGT LOWS LIKELY OCCURRING PRIOR TO MDNGT. SNOW FROM THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM THE WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR RGN LATE WED NGT.

&&


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...     LONGER RANGE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF SN CONTG ACROSS OUR FA THRU THU, WITH THE GREATEST QPF FCST OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS OF THE RGN. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN ONSET/EXIT TMG AND THE MAGNITUDE OF EVENT QPF BULLSEYE. OF THE MODELS, THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS (ECMWF) RUNS IS FASTEST (SLOWEST) WITH ONSET/EXIT OF SNFL, WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF (CANGEM) IS LIGHTEST (HEAVIEST) WITH FCST QPF AFFECTING OUR FA. FOR THIS FCST UPDATE, A COMPROMISE WAS TAKEN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL ONSET/EXIT SNFL TMG WITH THE MIDDLE GFS USED TO WEIGHT POP DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA WITH MAX POPS IN THE HIGH LIKELY TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL RANGE. WNTR WX HDLNS ARE POSSIBLE, SPCLY OVR CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS, BUT WITH THE BULK OF THIS EVENT STILL PAST 72 HRS OUT IN TM WHERE WE STILL DO NOT DEPICT 6 HRLY QPF/SNFL, IT IS STILL TO ERLY TO COMMIT TO ANY SPECIFIC SNFL AMTS WITH THIS EVENT.

SNFL WILL TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS BY LATE THU AFTN AND ERLY THU EVE ACROSS OUR FA THEN END BY LATE THU NGT, FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND NOT AS COLD (CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS) TEMPS FOR FRI THRU SAT. THE NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE MAINLY SUN THRU SUN NGT WITH THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF AND CANGEM MORE INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z GFS (AND ITS ENSM) WITH SN LOOKING TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE FOR THE RGN. FOR NOW, WE WEIGHTED MAX POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY GIVEN THAT NOT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR AN EVENT AT THE FAR EDGE OF OUR LONG RANGE.

&&


.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY KBGR AND KBHB WHILE THE NORTH STAYS VFR.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR TAF SITES MON NGT TIL WED EVE, THEN CLGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR FROM W TO E ACOSS THE RGN IN SN LATE WED NGT AND ERLY THU MORN, CONTG INTO THE AFTN, THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR THU NGT IN EXITING SN SHWRS AND THEN BACK TO VFR AGAIN ON FRI.

&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM TO INITIALIZE WINDS. FOR WAVES: THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL (CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS). THIS WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND INTO MID DAY MONDAY. A NEW NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH COMBINED SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3 FEET. TOTAL WATER LEVEL: ESTOFS SURGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL SO WILL KEEP THE BASE TIDE ANOMALY ALONG THE COAST NEAR +0.10 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SPRING TIDE PRODUCES HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE MONTH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SO WILL MONITOR COASTAL EVENT ON 21ST CLOSELY. IN BANGOR LARGE ANOMALY DUE TO ICE PERSISTS SO WILL CONTINUE TO INITIALIZED THE BASE TIDE ANOMALY BASED ON RFC GUIDANCE THEN WILL ADJUST FOR SURGE/REVERSE SURGE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO NW WIND GUST POTENTIAL UPWARDS TO 30 KT. LGT TO MDT FRZG SPRAY IS LIKELY SPCLY LATE MON NGT AND TUE MORN AND AGAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORN. AFTER A BREAK WITH NO MARINE HDLNS WED AFTN AND WED NGT, ANOTHER PD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THU WITH SE WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3/NWPS WV GUIDANCE BLEND FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST.

&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  NONE.
MARINE...  NONE.

&&


NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...  MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...  MIGNONE/VJN
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