FXUS61 KCAR 021358
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
858 AM EST MON DEC 2 2024
 SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OVER THE MARITIMES ON
FRIDAY
 &&
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9 AM UPDATE
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND ADDED IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AREAS FOR THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR TODAY, THE TROF AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH WARMER TEMPS IN AREAS
WITH CLEAR SKIES
BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIT TO THE EAST HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST RH MODEL SHOW HIGHER MID AND LOW
LEVEL VALUES, SO DECIDED TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR THE NIGHT TO
SHOW THIS IN ADDITION, SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW TEMPS FOR THE
NIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER THOUGH DID NOT GO TO HIGH DUE TO
THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS STILL EXPECT TEENS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE LOW
&&
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY MORNING
CONTINUES TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS WEAK RIDGING AT 500MB BUILDS
ACROSS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS AROUND 5K FT, THUS EXPECT A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY A FEW
FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH
OF THE KATAHDIN REGION AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IT WILL BE A
COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS IF WE SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LOWS COULD BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH CURRENT SNOW
PACK AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THICKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL BE DRY
WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF A STRAY FLURRY AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST
&&
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THE SNOW WILL LIKLEY CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING SNOW MAY CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS UPPER PENOBSCOT
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT MORE IN THE
WAY OF A NEGATIVE TILT, WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN MAINE THURSDAY MORNING THE LOWS
WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST, AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW
ACROSS THE NORTH, EXPECT WRAP AROUND SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WHILE STILL
TOO EARLY TO TALK EXACT AMOUNTS, POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
PLOWABLE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND TURNING COLDER
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BLOWING
SNOW REMAINS A POTENTIAL CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
WELL BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THAT
FORECAST ELEMENT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND
&&
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT LIGHT WNW
WINDS FOR TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS,
WITH NORTH TERMINALS SEEING HIGH END MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO LEFT NORTH TERMINALS NEAR BKN030 LIGHT NW
WINDS
SHORT TERM:
TUE THRU WEDVFR/MFVR ISOLD -SHSN LIGHT WIND
WED NIGHT THRU THU WIDESPREAD IFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW
THU NIGHT THRU FRIMVFR NORTH SCT -SHSN AND VFR FOR KBGR/KBHB
NW WIND GUSTS 35 KT POSSIBLE
&&
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WINDS/SEAS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
&&
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MENONE
MARINENONE
&&
NEAR TERMBUSTER/LAFLASH
SHORT TERMTWD
LONG TERMTWD
AVIATIONBUSTER/LAFLASH/TWD
MARINEBUSTER/LAFLASH/TWD
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