FXUS61 KCAR 052331
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
731 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:31PM UPDATEAVIATION UPDATE SEE THE AVIATION SECTION
BELOW
 &&
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
2) STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN MONDAY AND LASTS AT LEAST
INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES OF 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
&&
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING OPEN WAVE LOW PRESSURE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST,
THOUGH BE ON THE LOWER END WITH ONLY AROUND 100 J/KG CAPE AT
BEST AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER THAT
SAID, SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN SHOWERS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER BY THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY LIFTING INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S
KEY MESSAGE 2STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN MONDAY AND
LASTS AT LEAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HOT
TEMPERATURES OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, A RIDGE IN THE JET STREAM MOVES IN BEHIND IT THIS RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AND PARK OVER THE QUEBEC REGION OF CANADA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
RIDGE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND BRING HOT TEMPERATURES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY, REACHING THE UPPER
80S AND POTENTIALLY THE LOW 90S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH ARE A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WHICH WOULD AFFECT HOW HOT TEMPERATURES
GET
&&
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS
KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHULTONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES, THOUGH KFVE WILL
SEE BRIEFLY LOWERED VFR CIGS (BKN040) AFTER 05Z BUT MVFR
(BKN020) AT FVE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY
OF KFVE, KPQI, AND KHUL LATE TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT S-SE AT AROUND 5 KTS
TOMORROW: CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR BY 18Z
AS -SHRA MOVE INTO THE AREA, FURTHER DROPPING TO IFR TOWARDS
22Z–23Z WITH PERSISTENT -RA AND LOW CIGS (BKN008-BKN015) AND
REDUCED VSBY (3-5 SM) WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OUT OF THE
S-SE AT 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS PICKING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON
KBGRTONIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS VCSH THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, STARTING FROM THE S AT AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5 KTS TOMORROW, VFR CIGS WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR BY 21Z AS STEADY
SHOWERS APPROACH THE AREA WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE
TO 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 20 KTS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON LLWS BECOMES A HAZARD AFTER 23Z 190 DEGREES AT 45
KTS
KBHB TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND AROUND 5 KTS TOMORROW, VFR CIGS WILL HOLD
UNTIL 21Z, AT WHICH POINT CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE E-SE TO 10 KTS, WITH DAYTIME GUSTS REACHING
15 KTS, BEFORE SHIFTING SE AT 10 KTS AS CIGS LOWER FURTHER
INTO THE EVE, LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 23Z 190 DEGREES AT 45 KTS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SATURDAY NIGHTMVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAYCONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY, FIRST AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAYVFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS N/NW WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH NIGHT
&&
MARINE
GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL
AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
&&
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MEBEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030
MARINENONE
&&
DISCUSSIONAES/JMM
AVIATIONAES/JS/JMM
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