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FXUS61 KCAR 191642 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1242 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

SYNOPSIS...  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230 PM...SOME QUICK UPDATES TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS, BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FAIRLY DENSE AREAS OF SMOKE ALOFT COVERING THE CROWN OF ME ATTM, THIS MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT S AND W TODAY.

9 AM UPDATE... AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SHROUD CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTIES. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS IN EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF STRATUS ADVECTING BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THESE CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY RIVER AND VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...     STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD BEHIND THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...     STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STRATUS DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL (1 FOOT/9 SECONDS) AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE (1 FOOT/4-5 SECONDS) ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET/8 SECONDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL USE NWPS FOR WAVES. TOTAL WATER LEVEL: WILL KEEP THE BASE TIDE ANOMALY AT +0.20 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.EQUIPMENT... WFO CAR SUFFERED ACOMMS FAILURE THIS MORNING, AND FORECAST WARNING DUTIES TO BE HANDLED BY WFO GYX UNTIL THE COMMS ARE RESTORED.

&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029- 030.
MARINE...  NONE.

&&


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