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FXUS61 KCAR 141247 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
747 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2018

SYNOPSIS...  HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES QUEBEC PROVINCE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE. SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT, WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH. LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH, TO THE MID 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR STEADY, OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY, TONIGHT.
&&


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...     EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION THEN SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE STATE SUNDAY.
&&


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...     LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THEN ENDING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&


.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE NAM TO INITIALIZE WINDS. FOR WAVES: SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AROUND 5 FEET/7 SECONDS EARLY SATURDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL EMANATING FROM A STORM IN THE ATLANTIC, WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET/10-11 SECONDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALSO EXPECT A SECONDARY NORTHEASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM (AROUND 2 FEET/4 SECONDS) TO DEVELOP AND COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL BUILD TO AROUND 8 FEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TOTAL WATER LEVEL: WILL KEEP THE BASE TIDE ANOMALY AT +0.10 FEET BASE ON TIDAL OBSERVATIONS.
&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&


NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...  NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...  NORCROSS/MIGNONE
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