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FXUS61 KCAR 200207 AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018

SYNOPSIS...  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 9:07 PM UPDATE: THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE AT THIS TIME WAS TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE SNOW INTO THE AREA BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS WAS BASED MOSTLY ON THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST MRMS DATA. OTHERWISE, ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH IN MOST AREAS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FLURRIES ABOUT TO EXIT NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTN, LEAVING A SHORT BREAK OF NO SNFL BEFORE WARM ADVCN SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES AND DEEP LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN APCHS MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE RGN FROM CNTRL CAN LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TNGT, AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING LATE NGT AS LGT OVRRNG SNFL COMMENCES.

LGT SNFL WILL CONT INTO SAT MORN ACROSS NE PTNS OF THE RGN AS LATE AS MID MORN BEFORE ALL SN EXITS INTO NB PROV. BEHIND A WARM FRONT, TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH AFTN HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE N TO ARND 40 OVR THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VLY. A COLD FRONT FROM HUDSON BAY WILL BE ENTERING FAR NW ME BY ERLY EVE SAT, WITH SCT SN SHWRS XPCTD JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVR THE NW THIRD OF THE RGN LATE IN THE AFTN. W WINDS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURG THE AFTN AS THE LOWER ATMOS DESTABILIZES AND ALLOWS FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALF IN THE 925-850MB LAYER TO MIX DOWN IN GUSTS THAT COULD REACH 30 MPH AND EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER OVR HI TRRN.

&&


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...     THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL BRING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILDING IN BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MOVING THE PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL MAINE, THEN OUT OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW IN THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MOVING INTO SW MO, ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO NH. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. USED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED WINDGUST BY FACTOR TOOL 20%, 26% FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR QPF USED GFS.

&&


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...     THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A DEEPENING LOW OVER CENTRAL MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY MORNING THE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND MOVE NW INTO SOUTHERN IA AS THE LOW OCCLUDES, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ERN NH/SW ME. MONDAY EVENING THE LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN IL, THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ME. TUESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN ME, TO THIS POINT THE GFS /ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALL THREE ARE SHOWING SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THE LOW OVER NRN ME, THE ECMWF SHOWS IT SOUTH NEAR PORTLAND. DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DEPENDING UPON LOCATION WILL GREATLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN ME FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILD IN. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, HOWEVER THE SOLUTION LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. USED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED WINDGUST BY FACTOR TOOL.

&&


.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KHUL WITH VFR FROM KHUL SOUTH TO KBHB. THE TAF SITES WILL TRANSITION TO IFR AND MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH RESPECTFULLY LATE TNGT IN SN...THEN TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR AND THEN VFR FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY SAT AS SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS IN THE MORN THEN ENDS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SAT AFTN WHILE CONTG ACROSS NRN SITES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS EARLY BECOMING VFR NORTH, THEN THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE COAST BY MORNING, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CLEARING SKIES, VFR CONDITIONS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FOR BHB AND BGR. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB AND BGR MONDAY EVENING BEFORE 10 PM. MVFR CONDITIONS SPREAD TO HUL AND NORTHERN MAINE, BY MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS SPREAD TH HUL AND NORTHERN MAINE BY 3 AM. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BHB, BGR, AND HUL BECOMING MVFR THE CLEARING AND BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING. NORTHERN MAINE WILL CLEAR TO MVFR MID MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH SCATTER SNOWSHOWER THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD.

&&



MARINE...  
   NEAR TERM: WE STILL XPCT SCA CONDITIONS TO ONSET VERY LATE TNGT, THEN CONT THRU THE DAY SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO BLENDED WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN EFFECT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FOR WINDS AND SEA. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY AROUND 9 PM AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN BELOW THROUGH MONDAY.

&&


CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


ME...  NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.

&&


NEAR TERM...CB/VJN SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...  CB/VJN/NORTON
MARINE...  CB/VJN/NORTON
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