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FXUS61 KGYX 021333 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE EARL WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEFORE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COOLER...BREEZY WEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORNING UPDATE... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WIND FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW... FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE... THE HEAT IS ON! EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ONCE AGAIN WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW US TO TIE FOR THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE ON RECORD (SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW). WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECT THE HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT EXCEED OUR HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD...THE EXTREME DURATION OF THIS EVENT IS SIGNIFICANT. WILL PULL THE TRIGGER AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...FOR THE SAME AREA AS YESTERDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO BE THE LOCATION OF LOWEST DEW POINTS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVER SOUTHERN MAINE...DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. USED MET NOS FOR MAX TEMPS. FOR THE LONG TERM... ALL EYES SHIFT TOWARDS EARL (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARL TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS HURRICANE EARL TO STAY WELL OFF TO THE E OF THE ME/NH COAST WITH ANY IMPACT OCCURRING AFT 00Z SAT TIL 09Z. THERE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH FORECAST TRACK OF EARL ALLOWING IT TO PASS OVER THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK AND THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED NEWD AS IT HEADS TWD NOVA SCOTIA AND BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL...THIS IS THANKS TO A UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. IF THIS TRACK OCCURS VERY LITTLE OR NO IMPACT WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS OF THE CWA WHILE THE ONLY IMPACT WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SWELLS. IF THIS TRACK HOLDS...SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE APPROACHING TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT FROM THE W AND VERY LITTLE HAVING TO DO WITH ANY TROPICAL BANDING OF RAIN WHICH WOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. QPF AMTS AT THIS TIME WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING SO NO HYDROLOGY PROBS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEEP IN MIND THIS WHOLE LINE OF THINKING CAN SUDDENLY CHANGE IF FOR SOME REASON EARL DECIDES TO TRACK FURTHER W THAN CURRENT THINKING...SO STAY TUNED. FOR LATEST TPC ADVSRY REFER TO MIATCPAT2. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL TAKE OVER ON WEST WINDS WITH A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS. SO EXPECT A NICE SAT AFTN AND THIS PLEASANR WX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE DRY WLY FLOW CONTINUES.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM... VFR CONDS FRI WILL BECOME IFR FRI NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDS RETURN SAT AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE... SHORT TERM... LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS/SEAS HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. LONG TERM... QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED. PREV DISC; ALL INDICATIONS AND MODELS TAKE EARL WELL SE OF THE MAINE COAST AND WITH RAPID ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM NEWD BY 06Z SAT WE ARE EXPECTING BEST CHC OF PEAK WINDS BETWEEN 00Z-08Z SAT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. MODELS HAVE SO FAR SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OF CENTER OF EARL TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE BENCHMARK 40N 70W. HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME OF THE TCM WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IT STILL MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE SINCE THE WATERS WILL ALL REMAIN ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE A STG WIND FIELD. WIND WAVES WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO GENERATE SO MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SWELLS COMING IN FROM THE SE. IN CASCO BAY MUCH OF THESE SWELLS MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY THE ISLANDS TO THE E. THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD WILL BE OVER EASTERN MOST AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD PENOBSCT BAY. SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS SAT FOLLOWED BY WNW WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE RARE IN COASTAL MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH HURRICANE CAROL IS THE ONLY NAMED TROPICAL SYSTEM TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THIS REGION. IT APPEARS THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF EARL WILL OCCUR AROUND LOW TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. COASTAL INUNDATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM. HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 9.5 FEET AT 650 PM FRIDAY EVENING IN PORTLAND WITH ANOTHER HIGH TIDE AT 736 AM 8.3 FEET. CONSERVATIVE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE GIVES PORTLAND A 1.1 FEET...BUT INBETWEEN THESE TIDES. THIS WOULD KEEP PORTLAND'S STORM TIDE BELOW THE 12 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HIGH ENERGY SWELLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING PRODUCES SOME SPLASH-OVER IN THE MOST VULERNABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS CAMP ELLIS IN SACO. MORE ON THIS LATER AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND UPDATES OCCUR.

CLIMATE... THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY MARKS THE FIFTH DAY IN A ROW THAT PORTLAND HAS REACHED 90 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED SINCE JULY 1993 AND WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR LONGEST HEAT WAVES EVER IN THE FOREST CITY (HEAT WAVES LASTING 5 DAYS HAVE OCCURRED 3 OTHER TIMES IN HISTORY...WITH THE LAST OCCURRENCE IN JULY 1993). INTERESTINGLY...THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST HAS SHOWN TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAT WAVES. THERE HAVE BEEN 5 HEAT WAVES WITH 3 DAYS OR MORE OF 90 DEGREE HEAT IN THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN PORTLAND. THIS AMOUNTS TO 20 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL SUCH HEAT WAVES THROUGH THE WHOLE YEAR. UNTIL THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE...NO HEAT WAVE HAS LASTED INTO SEPTEMBER. THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTLAND IS 94 DEGREES SET IN 1953. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 90S AGAIN TODAY...FOR THE FIFTH DAY IN A ROW. THE RECORD HIGH IN CONCORD IS 98 DEGREES ALSO SET IN 1953. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AT CONCORD. THE ALL-TIME WARMEST DAY IN PORTLAND FOR SEPTEMBER IS 95 DEGREES. THE MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR AUGUST FOR PORTLAND /PWMCLMPWM/, CONCORD /PWMCLMCON/ AND GRAY /PWMCLMGYX/ WERE ISSUED THIS EVENING. THEY ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GYX

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEZ023>028. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018>028. NH...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NHZ014. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE... TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ150>154.

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