FXUS61 KGYX 191440
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1040 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
 SYNOPSIS
WARMTH REMAINS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH
TODAY ANOTHER STORM WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT LEAST AND MAYBE INTO THE VALLEYS A DRY
BUT BREEZY WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SO WE CANNOT QUITE CLOSER THE BOOK ON WINTER
 &&
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1030 AM UPDATECURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEAR CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CAN BE
FOUND ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD THIS DECK
HAS ALLOWED FOR A FOGGY START TO THE MORNING ALONG THE PENOBSCOT
BAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE, AND BUILD A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THIS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS TO ADVECT INTO COASTAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE FOG WILL THEN OVERSPREAD TO NEARLY ALL
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
650 AM UPDATEFOG/LOW STRATUS SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED IN ITS APPROACH
BUT IS STILL SLOWLY CREEPING TOWARD THE MIDCOAST NO MAJOR CHANGES
BUT DID ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH LOW
VISIBILITY REPORTED AT BGR AND VNL
PREVIOUS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WILL
SLIDE FARTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WARMING MOSTLY
INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS USUAL THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE AND KEEP THE COAST
A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ASIDE FROM THIS, CURRENTLY WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS NEAR
BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR APPROACHING FROM THE EAST AND MAYBE A BIT
OF FOG NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW
FAR IT WILL PROGRESS, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND DIRECTION WOULD
FAVOR CONTINUING TO BRING IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
MODELS ARE NOT LATCHING ON THIS WELL, BUT I HAVE MANUALLY UPPED
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MIDCOAST TO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO PARTLY SUNNY TOWARD THE AUGUSTA
REGION WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
COAST, I HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY FOR LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO IF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS END UP STAYING MORE OVER THE
WATERS TODAY, THE WIND DIRECTION DOES FAVOR BRINGING THEM
TOWARD THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING
&&
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
FOG AND AND STRATUS BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOG
COULD BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS, AND THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY
DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY IN THE 30S
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS FOG LIFTS, BUT THE FOG MAY LURK NEAR THE COAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER, EVEN IF VISIBILITIES DO IMPROVE
NEAR THE COAST, FOG WILL PROBABLY START MAKING A COMEBACK TOWARD
EARLY EVENING EXCEPT NORTHWEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY, SKIES WILL STAY GENERALLY
CLOUDY, BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE POSSIBLE WITH
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXTENT TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S NEAR THE COAST WITH 50S BECOMING MORE LIKELY
WITH INLAND EXTENT
&&
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE:
MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS POOR ON THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, AND WHERE THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SNOW WOULD BE THERE IS ALSO STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY DEEPEN AS QUICKLY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AND BE DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO FLIP RAIN TO SNOW SO THIS
UPDATE CONTINUED TO HEDGE MORE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE,
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERWARDS ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
FULL DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGE: IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PUT WINTER TO BED AND THE
EXTENDED REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST A THREAT FOR INTERIOR
SNOWFALL
IMPACTS: ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF EARLY SPRING SNOWFALLANY
TRENDS TOWARDS WARMER AND WETTERIE LESS SNOWWILL ENHANCE
THE ICE JAM THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE RIVER ICE LINGERS
FORECAST DETAILS: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT AN OCCLUSION
FORMING AND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
TRIPLE POINT THIS WOULD HELP TO SHUT OFF WARM ADVECTION AND
KEEP THE SYSTEM COOLER AS A WHOLE DESI CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT MEMBERS FEATURING A MORE ROBUST S/WV TROF ARE MORE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP THIS WAY AND RESULT IN MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE FORECAST BEARS WATCHING THOUGH
AS THE MEAN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE
MEDIANMEANING A FEW LARGER SOLUTIONS MAY BE INFLUENCING THE
AVERAGE INDEED EXAMINING INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SHOWS MORE OF A BI-
MODAL DISTRIBUTIONWITH MOST MEMBERS HAVING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS BUT A HANDFUL 6 OR MORE INCHES FOR NOW I WILL
FAVOR THE LIGHTER AMOUNTSBUT ESPECIALLY TOMORROW SAMPLING OF
THE S/WV TROF SHOULD GIVE SOME INDICATIONS OF WHICH WAY TO
ADJUST THE FORECAST
A SECONDARY S/WV TROF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A FRESH SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AND A CHANCE FOR MTN SHOWERS BUT THE REAL
ATTENTION IS ON THE NEXT STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK GUIDANCE HAS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WRAPPING UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS TIME THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COASTBUT ALSO STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE
STORM DEPENDING ON DIURNAL TIMING OR LOCATION OF THE LEADING
HIGH PRESSURE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR ANOTHER
THREAT OF SNOW CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THIS EVENT SHOWS SIMILAR
MEANS ACROSS ALL CLUSTERSINDICATING TO THIS FORECASTER THAT
THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAYS TO PRODUCE SNOW OUT OF THIS
ONE
&&
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERMMOSTLY VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
GRADUALLY BECOMING E/SE BY THIS AFTERNOON ONE THING THAT MAY
CAUSE AMENDMENTS IN THE NEAR-TERM IS AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR IT WILL
PROGRESS, BUT IT'S SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO REACH RKD AND MAYBE AUG
OTHERWISE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING LOW CEILINGS TO THE
COAST AS EARLY AS THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY, AND THEN
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LIFR BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT FOG TO
DIMINISH FOR INLAND TERMINALS BUT COULD LINGER NEAR THE COASTAL
SITES MUCH OF THE DAY FOR CEILINGS, EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR FOR THE INLAND SITES, PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
AT THE COAST, CEILINGS ARE LESS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TOWARD EARLY
EVENING, CEILINGS WILL LIKELY START LOWERING AGAIN ALONG WITH
FOG RETURNING NEAR THE COAST HIE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THURSDAY
LONG TERMA PERIOD OF EXTENDED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
IN THE LONG TERM A FRONT AND PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THU ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS TURN WESTERLY FRI INTO SAT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN SIMILAR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONSBUT MAY ALSO HAVE A THREAT FOR
A LITTLE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN AS WELL
&&
MARINE
SHORT TERMSCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT ONLY FOR SEAS AS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER TO
THE E/ESE LATER TODAY AND THEN MORE OUT OF THE SE THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
LONG TERMSCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHTESPECIALLY AS SEAS TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO FALL BELOW 5
FT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THAT SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OR OCCLUSION THRU
THE FORECAST AREA AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
BACKSIDE A BRIEF GUST TO AROUND GALE FORCE IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE
OF THE BAYSWITH SCAS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS SAT
&&
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MENONE
NHNONE
MARINESMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154
&&
NEAR TERMCOMBS/PALMER
SHORT TERMCOMBS
LONG TERMCLAIR/LEGRO
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