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FXUS61 KGYX 191525 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1125 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

SYNOPSIS...  COOLER, DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1100 AM UPDATE... LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT LATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED IN CURRENT SAT PICS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE MARITIMES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND TDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FORECAST ATTM. PREV DISC... THIS MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS FROM N TO S. FOG SHOULD LIFT PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WHILE ALOFT THE REGION TRENDS MORE TOWARDS A DIRTY RIDGE. IN THE NEAR TERM TODAY...CONTINUED DRYING AND CLEARING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GOOD NE BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE. GET OUT AN ENJOY IT.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...     WEAK S/WV TROFING ATTEMPTS TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALOFT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE WELL ALOFT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS VS. ANY PRECIP. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT HOWEVER...AS THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE HRRR DID DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THAT COULD HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MORE CONFIDENT IN THE COOLER TEMPS IN THE NRN VALLEYS THAN S...AND SO THAT IS WHERE I HAVE READINGS NEAR 50 AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN. IT WILL STILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT TEMPS S OF THE MTNS...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S. ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY EXPECTED MON...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...     WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE SIGNS OF FALL APPROACHING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES ARE GETTING A BIT WEAKER AND COLD AIR IS BUILDING OVER THE ARCTIC ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA, BUT WE WON'T BE GETTING IN ON THIS NEARLY AS MUCH THIS WEEK AS WE HAVE IN PRIOR WEEKS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK, PASSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND ONE BRIEF SHOT OF HUMID AIR AND RAIN CHANCES INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AND BRINGS A DRIER AIR MASS IN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL FLATTEN OUT AND BRING BROADLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF LABRADOR, A RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SPELL SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S FOR MANY INLAND AREAS. THE VALLEYS SHOULD SEE THEIR TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL MORNING FOG. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S, COOLEST NEAR THE COAST. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF IT, BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND. THIS BRINGS JUST A NARROW SHOT OF WARM, HUMID AIR TO WORK WITH, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THAT WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT NORTH AND GET US INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IF IT DOES SO, THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH TO CREATE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT SURE YET WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THAT INSTABILITY, SO FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION KEEPING THINGS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&


.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT VALLEY FG AT NIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AT HIE. LESS CONFIDENCE AT LEB THIS MORNING...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER. MORE LIKELY THEY SEE FG TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER AT OTHER VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...  LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT WHITEFIELD, LEBANON, AND CONCORD. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&



MARINE...  
   SHORT TERM...  NE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THRU MON. GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THOUGH SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN A SMALL AREA OF THE WATERS E OF ISLES OF SHOALS. LIKEWISE...SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT IN THAT SAME AREA...THOUGH NOT A LARGE ENOUGH SECTION OF THE ZONE FOR A SCA AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...  SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&


GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE. NH...NONE.
MARINE...  NONE.

&&
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