Visit our Sponsor
MARINER'S
WEATHER
Maine
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Marine
Forecasts
Buoys
Sea Temp
Conditions
Satellite/Radar

TIDE CHARTS
Maine
ME Harbors
New Hampshire
NH Harbors
Massachusetts
MA Harbors
Rhode Island
RI Harbors

NAUTICAL LINKS
Maine
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Rhode Island

REVIEWS
Book Reviews
Maine Harbors
Marine & Coastal Weather
GYX Gray
Area Forecast
Discussion
Forecast Discussion Resources
FXUS61 KGYX 262211 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
611 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

SYNOPSIS...  LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING CLEARING THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION LATE MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY ON A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 610 PM UPDATE...HAVE INDEED ADDED THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST MAINE WHERE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE GROWN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO STOP PRODUCING THUNDER BY 8 PM.

515 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OXFORD AND ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTIES AS OF 5 PM. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. THESE WILL REACH THE AUGUSTA AREA BY 6 PM THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MIDCOAST. HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW-TOPPED. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH 7 PM.

PREVIOUSLY...

AS WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON COULD SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ME, WHERE LINGERING SURFACE TDS IN THE 50S AND SOME SUN COULD SPARK SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. SO AN ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOUR, AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL, ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOL AND FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW. THESE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SUNSET, AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WAVE SHIFTS TO OUR NE.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S N TO MID 40S S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AS SKIES CLEAR, WINDS SUBSIDE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...     FRIDAY MORNING WILL START MAINLY SUNNY BUT SUN FADES DURING THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE AS A WAVE CRUISES AROUND THE BASE OF A TROUGH TO OUR SW, AND WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60-65 RANGE MOST PLACES, BUT ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ON THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND MOSTLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED OUT IN THE SW 500 MB FLOW, SO IT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE, WITH QPF MAINLY AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...     UNCERTAINTY ON ARRIVAL OF WARMER TEMPS NEXT WEEK... MODELS SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND BECOMING A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING WILL ONLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND ENHANCED, POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME GRAUPEL IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS IS VERY COMMON WITH UPPER LOW SYSTEMS DURING LATE APRIL INTO MAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE EURO IS MUCH SLOWER IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW EAST AND KEEPS IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE QUICKER IN MOVING IT EAST. PREFER THE SOLUTIONS THAT MOVE IT EAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO THE WEST TO BECOME PROGRESSIVE. WITH THIS ALL IN MIND WILL PUSH BACK ANY WARMER TEMPS TO TUESDAY AND BEST WARMING WAITING NOW UNTIL AT LEAST WED WHERE H85 TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C. IF THE EURO ENDS UP CORRECT THEN THE WARMING TREND WILL HAVE TO HOLD OFF EVEN LONGER. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WHICH IS A GOOD HEDGE AND DOES BRING THE WARMER TEMPS WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE.

&&


.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...  VFR EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KHIE THIS EVENING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KLEB/KHIE. VFR LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY WITH MVFR OR IFR RETURNING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...  VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THRU MON.

&&



MARINE...  
   SHORT TERM...  HAVE EXTENDED THE ALL-PURPOSE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS THRU TONIGHT. IT IS MOSTLY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT, BUT COULD SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL STAY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...  SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED SAT INTO SUN.

&&


.
HYDROLOGY...   MOST RIVERS HAVE OR ARE CRESTING, AND WILL BE SUBSIDING THRU TONIGHT. THE KENNEBEC IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED AT SKOWHEGAN, AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING AT AUGUSTA ON FRIDAY.

&&


GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE. NH...NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&


NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
Click for Radar - Caribou
Caribou Radar
Click for Radar - Portland
Portland Radar
Click for current E CONUS IR/TOPO Satellite
E IR/TOPO Sat
Click for current NE VIS Satellite
NE VIS Sat
More... Images
-- Weather Tools --
For info about temperature (Fahrenheit, Celsius, Kelvin) click here
For info about time (UTC, 24 hour, etc.) click here
For info about wind (Beaufort, Saffir-Simpson) click here

www.maineharbors.com
Maine Harbors obtains forecasts and other information from the National Weather Service - (IWIN) and Environment Canada. US Forecasts are public domain and cannot be copyrighted. Canadian forecasts are copyright of Environment Canada.

Limitation of Liability - Maine Harbors does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of any of the weather information offered through this service. Under no circumstances shall Maine Harbors be liable to you or any other person for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of this service.