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FXUS61 KGYX 301008 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
608 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

SYNOPSIS...  THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS MUCH OF MAINE TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL OFFSHORE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST AND CROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

608 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE LOW CLOUD TRENDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST MESONET IN NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC... AT 06Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR WAS CENTERED VICINITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK. A 998 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RETREAT WELL OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL ALLOW FOG AND CEILINGS TO LIFT AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES...WHILE STILL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD AVERAGE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THEN MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...IT'LL BE A DRY START TO THE DAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES THAT WILL INTRODUCE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY THE EVENING HOURS.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...     THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WE'LL SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE. ON WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNNY PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM BY AFTERNOON THEN SWEEP EASTWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF MAINE. HOWEVER...FROM THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...     UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE MEANDERED A LITTLE BIT CLOSER BY THURSDAY (BUT STILL JUST WEST) WITH MORE OF AN E-W DIPOLE AFFECT TO THE HEIGHT PATTERN. BY SATURDAY SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE REFOCUSED THE 500MB PATTERN TO A MORE TRADITIONALLY POSITIVELY TILTED ONE...STRETCHING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE LOW CENTER WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC LEAVING JUST LARGE SCALE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGHING OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS AT THAT TIME. WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WE SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH LOWER TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON IN SHOWERS AND DENSE CLOUD COVER.

A WARM FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW ME FRIDAY AS THIS OCCURS. ON SATURDAY AN OCCLUSION CROSSES THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE LONG TERM MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL SOUTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE EURO KEEPING IT MUCH CLOSER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER COASTAL CYCLONE ZIPS BY TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, WE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&


.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  IFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IMPROVING TO MVFR THROUGHOUT DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGHOUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA.

LONG TERM...  IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MVFR IN-SHRA FOR HIE. FOG MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD -SHRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING MVFR BY FRIDAY EVENING AND POCKETS OF LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&



MARINE...  
   SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...  WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA, HOWEVER PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG WILL MAKE FOR POOR MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&


GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE. NH...NONE.
MARINE...  NONE.

&&


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