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FXUS61 KGYX 281059 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
659 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

SYNOPSIS...  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 655 AM UPDATE: SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG NOTED IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OCCURING EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, SUBSIDENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS. ELIMINATED ANY MENTION OF FOG EXCEPT FOR OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TWEAKED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, BUT WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT REACHING THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. WITH WARM TEMPS TODAY BUT STILL COLD OCEAN TEMPS DUE TO SOME UPWELLING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, OCEAN TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S SO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT SHOULD BE NOTED.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...     HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. USED BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGS BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND SAT.

&&


LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...     GOOD STRETCH OF WEATHER COMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER MAP. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN UNISON THAT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL ZONES BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE FORECAST.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL GIVE WAY TO READINGS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WARM UP.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...  AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 12Z WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO LIFR OVER THE CT VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLEB. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN FREE OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER 12Z ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT.

LONG TERM...   EXPECT PATCHY MVFR SUNDAY MORNING IN FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR HIE AND LEB. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS FOR MHT...CON...PWM...AND RKD.

&&



MARINE...  
   SHORT TERM...  A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND INCREASE SATURDAY DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA BY LATER IN THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM...   SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PRODUCE WINDS JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS WELL.

&&


GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028. NH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...  NONE.

&&
NEAR TERM..MARINE SHORT TERM...    MARINE LONG TERM...  HANES
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