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FXUS61 KGYX 191538 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018

SYNOPSIS...  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTRODUCING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY USHERING IN EVEN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE DRY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1138 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS IN NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC... 900 AM...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NOVA SCOTIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO CAPE COD AND LONG ISLAND. A 1021 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS VICINITY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GOES IMAGERY SHOWED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z RAOB SHOWED 25 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK SO WE'LL SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TODAY. BASED ON THE MORNING RAOB AND SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...I EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

PREV DISC... 7 AM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AND COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&


SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...     HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS REACHING TO NEAR 80 OVER MOST AREAS. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN ADVANCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...     A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY. THIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER, MAINLY TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. MORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW.

&&


.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...  VFR.

LONG TERM...  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&



MARINE...  
   SHORT TERM...  SCA'S OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR THE MORNING FROM POINTS EAST OF PORTLAND MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BUT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KTS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEAS SHOULD BE KNOCKED DOWN BELOW 5 FT BY NOON TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND WED. LONG TERM...  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE. NH...NONE.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150- 152.

&&


ES
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