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FXUS61 KGYX 231947 AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2018

SYNOPSIS...  LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN OR SNOW ELSEWHERE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WAA OVERUNNING LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A S/WV UPSTREAM DIGGING SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POP'S THRU THE NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND WILL ENHANCE OVERRUNNING PCPN LATER IN THE EVENING. US MODELS HAVE FINALLY CATCHED ON TO EURO SOLUTION ALLOWING STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE ME COAST TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD HELP WIPE OUT THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ALLOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR ESP IN CENTRAL SOMERSET AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER STM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AFTN. ELSEWHERE IN THE MTN AREAS THE RAIN WILL CHG TO A MIX AND THEN TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHTER ACCUMS EXPECTED SINCE SOME OF THE QPF WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, SO A WINTER WX ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT THEN LOWERED FROM THERE A TAD TO REFLECT STG DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALOFT. AS THE STORM WINDS UP LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL ENOUGH CLOSER TO THE COASTAL MIDCOAST AREAS THAT SOME PTYPE MAY FALL AS SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS SUCH AS THE CAMDEN HILLS ETC.

&&


SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...     THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BY MODELS WED BUT WRAPAROUND SNOW OR MIXED PTYPE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO THE PCPN AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF NBM TEMPS FOR WED BUT ONCE AGAIN NUDGED A TAD LOWER. WED NIGHT THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BUT CAA AND DOWNSLOPING GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.

&&


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...     VERY ACTIVE AND COMPLEX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY. H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR -10C AND A FRESH SNOWPACK IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY MAKE FOR VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP A WELL MIXED LAYER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY LATE AT NIGHT.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO A POSITION NEAR LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS PARTICULARLY GUSTY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN, HIGH TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY A COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE. THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS NOT ENTIRELY ONBOARD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SURFACE FEATURE MAY DRIVE THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND BY SUNDAY AS RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

A SECOND, DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING COASTAL STORM MAY EFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP, UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&


.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WED IMPROVING TO VFR OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND SNOW OVER NORTHERNMOST AREAS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION.

&&



MARINE...  
   SHORT TERM...  GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUTER WATER FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS IN THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...  SCA THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE EXCEEDED AS A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES ON THURSDAY. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH STORM FORCE.

&&


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES AND POSSIBLY LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRIGGER A STORM SURGE OVER ABOUT 1.5 FEET. THIS COMBINED WITH ALREADY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY BRING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH-OVER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&


GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ008-009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ013-014. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&
NEAR TERM..MARINE SHORT TERM...    MARINE LONG TERM...  CANNON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CANNON
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