FXUS61 KGYX 241408
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1008 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023
 SYNOPSIS
MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY UNDER GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REDEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE COAST OF MAINE WITH MORE SNOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS BEFORE A POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
 &&
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1005 AM UPDATELITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS
TIME JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
640 AM UPDATENO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TDS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS
PREVIOUSLY
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS
SUGGESTING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
MIXING OUT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH DAY BREAK LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL ALSO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY BEFORE CRESTING OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH
SKIES TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MOUNTAINS CLOUDS LINGER LONGER UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THINNING LATER THIS EVENING NW WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS RELAX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLACKENS
&&
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY MORNING WILL RETREAT
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
PICK UP IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FGEN
FORCING AROUND 700 MB INCREASES AFTER A COOL START,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ONSET THANKS TO SOME WET BULBING, PRECIPITATION
WILL START AS LIGHT SNOW IN MOST SPOTS SHORTLY AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST WARM NOSE
AROUND 5KFT TO 7KFT PUSHING IN FROM THE SW THAT WILL LEAD TO
SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NH INTO SW MAINE BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THUS WITH THESE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY A LOW ELEVATIONS
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING LOOK TO BE AROUND 2
INCHES OR LESS MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE REST OF THIS SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW
&&
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER SOUTHERN CANADA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT MEANWHILE, 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALLOWING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
CROSS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THIS
PATTERN, THE H7 AND H8 LOW TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING
WARM AIR TO ENTER THE REGION FROM ALOFT ANY SNOW WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT MINS SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WE HAVE KEPT A NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB LATER
IN THE NIGHT
THE LOW EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ENTERING THE REGION ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, AIDED BY AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, A WEAK AND FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ENTER THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THIS SYSTEM THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY THE COASTLINE HOWEVER, OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS
FEATURE
&&
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERMDRIER AIR ARRIVING ON NW FLOW FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING VFR INTO SATURDAY MORNING
UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT KHIE THROUGH
THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL
OVERSPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND THEN SLEET FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR BY SATURDAY
EVENING
LONG TERMIFR WITH AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS RAIN
CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO END OUT THE WEEKEND
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START OUT NEXT
WEEK MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE LYING OVER CENTRAL AREAS
&&
MARINE
SHORT TERMWINDS DROPPED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS LATE THIS
MORNING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WITH WINDS APPROACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LONG TERMSCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES INLAND AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF OF MAINE COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER ANY WINDOW OF STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE HOWEVER AS WEST
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WINDS AND WAVES FINALLY
SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
&&
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MENONE
NHNONE
MARINENONE
&&
NEAR TERMEKSTER
SHORT TERMSCHROETER
LONG TERMCANNON
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