Dauphin Island Weather

DAUPHIN
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FXUS64 KMOB 020929 AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2010

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]... THERE SEVERAL UPPER FEATURES TO NOT...A LOW DRIFTING AROUND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN TWO RIDGES...ONE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER RIDGING SOUTH OF HURRICANE EARL. THE COUPLING BETWEEN THE LATTER TWO IS PULLING MIDLEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI THEN THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES INTO PLAY AT THE SURFACE BUT THEY ARE RATHER WEAK AS ARE THE THERMAL GRADIENTS...ADVECTION...AND OTHER KINEMATICS THAT ONE NORMALLY SEES MUCH LATER IN THE YEAR. NONETHELESS THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THERE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER NUMBERS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BONE DRY FOR THE NEXT DAY WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND TODAY AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. /77

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SINKING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STALL BY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE DRIER AIR MASS AND SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S NORTH OF I-10...AND THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-10. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 70 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES COASTAL SECTIONS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE FROM 95 TO 99 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL OCCUR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 56 TO 62 DEGREES WELL INLAND...AND THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /22

MARINE... THAT RIDGE MENTIONED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TODAY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE WITH LITTLE RAIN IN SIGHT. /77

AVIATION [02/12Z ISSUANCE]... A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. /77

FIRE WEATHER... DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES AND FROM THE MID 30 TO MID 40S FOR THE COASTAL ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 94 69 94 70 / 00 05 10 05
PENSACOLA 93 72 94 73 / 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 90 74 91 75 / 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 94 64 96 66 / 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 95 64 96 66 / 00 05 05 00
CAMDEN 96 64 96 65 / 05 05 05 00 CRESTVIEW 95 62 95 68 / 00 05 05 05

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL... NONE. FL... NONE. MS... NONE. GM...NONE.

Station DPIA1
Conditions

Buoy 42007

Buoy 42040

Sea Temp

Mobile Radar

Gulf/Atlantic
Satellite

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